Patrick Brown’s fall could be a blessing in disguise for PCs
MPP Vic Fedeli, the party’s longtime finance critic, comes to mind as a good choice for interim Conservative leader
Suddenly, an Ontario election that looked wildly unpredictable appears utterly confounding.
The only certainty is that Patrick Brown’s dramatic decapitation as the Progressive Conservative candidate for premier is destined for the history books. No one, however, can foretell the province’s political future.
Never mind the partisans and pollsters who confidently predicted a PC rout of a forlorn Liberal government. No one truly knew how Premier Kathleen Wynne would fare against the untested Brown or the NDP’s Andrea Horwath on the campaign trail, nor how voters would respond.
We know even less today. Tempting as it is to write off the Tories as leaderless, they are hardly rudderless — and may even enjoy a renaissance.
At their moment of maximum disarray, a dislikable leader has been dispatched. If they can improve on their last disastrous choice — pollsters were already noting Brown’s creeping negative ratings, and the more than 44 per cent of Ontarians who had no opinion of him — the Tories may yet surprise people.
Put another way, the best thing Wynne and Horwath had going for them was Brown. Unlikeable, unknowable, unimpressive as a politician and most especially as an aspiring premier.
But not to be underestimated. Brown surprised his rivals in the 2015 party leadership race by massively outhustling and organizing them, signing up tens of thousands of instant Tories by reaching out to ethnic communities. As leader, he picked up the pace by setting remarkable new fundraising records.
Yet organizational talent does not translate into political vision. Brown was not only bereft of charisma, he was utterly lacking in presence when he walked into a room.
The Tories can do better — and better late than never.
On Friday, the party caucus met to choose a replacement for the disgraced Brown. If they choose well — MPP Vic Fedeli, the party’s longtime finance critic, comes to mind — they may get a second lease on life, for the party’s erratic lead in the polls has long seemed to be in spite of Brown.
If they choose poorly — falling for a famous but untested political rookie — they may be unable to contain the damage or execute their campaign plan. For all his faults, Brown had recruited some talented political operatives, such as chief of staff Alykhan Velshi, who had urged his boss to resign immediately, and quit on principle when Brown didn’t (any new PC leader’s first act should be to rehire Velshi).
Even at their lowest moment Thursday, Ontario’s suddenly leaderless Progressive Conservatives were pointing proudly to their highest achievement — the People’s Guarantee. That’s the title of the party platform they’ve been counting on to win the June election, thanks to a novel marketing gimmick, the political equivalent to a money-back guarantee.
Last November, Brown publicly signed a pledge to give up the job of premier if he failed to deliver on his campaign promises — notably a new law on “Trust, Integrity, and Accountability.”
This week, Brown inadvertently delivered on that promise, unexpectedly. He’d broken a bond with the people of Ontario, and with his own party, by getting caught up in allegations of sexual impropriety.
And faced his own moment of accountability over integrity and trust. Patrick, we hardly knew ’ye — and now, we never will.
All that changed Wednesday night, when CTV aired detailed descriptions from two women alleging sexual misconduct by Brown. As a teetotalling politician, they said, he targeted intoxicated teenagers — including an employee on the public payroll.
Brown had been morally and mortally wounded. The man who would be premier became the fastest footnote to Ontario political history.
His alleged trolling for teens has an echo of Alabama’s Roy Moore, the Bible-thumping hypocrite whose underage victims exposed him before he could be elected to the U.S. Senate. Brown has always banked on the “court of public opinion” to finish off Wynne and her governing Liberals, weighed down by political baggage after 14 years in power. When the premier waived her parliamentary privilege and agreed to testify as a Crown witness in a Sudbury byelection bribery trial last year, Brown mischievously claimed that the she was personally on trial. When the Liberals asked him to retract the falsehood, Brown refused.
He kept insisting that the court of public opinion had condemned Wynne, even though she had never been on trial in a court of law. That world view came back to haunt Brown Wednesday night.
Fantasizing about filing a libel suit over the allegations of his own impropriety, he acknowledged that the roles were now reversed:
“I know that the court of public opinion moves fast. I have instructed my attorneys to ensure that these allegations are addressed where they should be: in a court of law.”
Live by the court of public opinion. Die by the court of public opinion.