Ford’s appeal to PCs may not translate in an Ontario election

If you watched the Progressive Conservative leadership debate Wednesday, you would have noted many things, mostly that it was largely boring and there were no spectacular standout performances.

But perhaps most notable was the extent to which Doug Ford really drove the agenda and momentum of the debate.

His hyperaggressive, bull-in-a-china shop, pugnacious everyman style has a certain appeal, especially to some segments of the conservative party and movement.

He is a climate-change denier. He would roll back changes to sex education. He says sexual harassment, while unacceptable, is an equally serious problem for men and women. He would make Ontario the most “prosperous region” in the world by deregulating almost everything.

This is relevant today, which is the first day of voting for PC party members. And a poll released this week shows that Ford is slightly ahead of Christine Elliott, although considering the margin of error it’s fair to say they are tied.

The poll by Mainstreet Research found 36.7 per cent of respondents prefer Ford as their first choice, as compared to 32.7 per cent who prefer Elliott. Caroline Mulroney is supported by only 20 per cent of the respondents, and social conservative advocate Tanya Granic Allen by 11 per cent.

It’s only one poll. And many political polls have been wrong in the recent past. But the results match up with most punditry around the race.

Ford was a distant third at the outset, but he has blown past Mulroney, and now has an equal chance of winning the PC leadership as Christine Elliott, the perceived front-runner since she entered the race. What changed?

To a point, Elliott has been less than impressive, especially when targeted by Ford over her perceived flip flops on subjects like a carbon tax and sex education.

Mulroney comes across as promising but green, and not able to hold her own with more experienced campaigners.

And Ford has been more credible than many would have expected. He certainly is less prone to speaking in campaign rhetoric, and that directness seems to bolster his claim to be an outsider, aiming to “drain the swamp” of Ontario’s political elite. (Never mind he’s a millionaire industrialist who inherited his money and business from his father.)

So there’s that first Donald Trump reference. Watching and listening to Ford, it’s impossible not to be reminded of Trump’s campaign and now presidential persona.

From this corner, it looks like this. If the objective is to provide a credible option and eventually topple the long-governing Liberals, Elliott or Mulroney appear to be the best bets.

Elliott has the experience and track record. Mulroney has the youth and political potential, not to mention a very affluent and connected close circle of friends and relatives.

Ford’s Trumpian populist appeal is clearly working among party members, but it’s hard to imagine him selling that to Ontarians overall on the much bigger stage of a general election. Will Ontarians support for premier a man who doesn’t believe we should act on climate change? Who is tone deaf to the #MeToo movement? Then again, few predicted he’d be a front-runner, again just like the Trump story. Could we see it here?

Watching and listening to Ford, it’s impossible not to be reminded of Trump’s campaign and now presidential persona.