As Italy votes, Europe fears populist gains
Election results under shroud of uncertainty
ROME — Italians braved long lines and confusing ballots to vote Sunday in one of the most uncertain elections in years — one that could determine if the country succumbs to the populist, euroskeptic and far-right sentiment that has swept through Europe.
Some Italian polling stations faced ballot delivery problems and all had new time-consuming anti-fraud measures in place that created bottlenecks at many stations. Authorities in Milan and Rome urged voters to give themselves plenty of time to cast their ballots and not wait until the last minute.
Some polling stations remained closed in Palermo two hours into election day because the wrong ballots were delivered and 200,000 new ones had to be reprinted overnight. Similar ballot glitches were reported elsewhere, forcing the suspension of the vote in two towns in Alessandria.
More than 46 million people were eligible to vote, including Italians abroad who already mailed in their ballots. Consolidated results are expected Monday.
Italy’s political scene is dominated by three main blocs — the centre-right coalition anchored by ex-Premier Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, the ruling centre-left coalition anchored by the Democratic Party and the antiestablishment 5-Star Movement.
The campaign itself was marked by neo-fascist rhetoric and anti-migrant violence that culminated in a shooting spree last month against six Africans. While the centre-right coalition that capitalized on Italy’s antimigrant sentiment led the polls, analysts predicted the likeliest outcome of Sunday’s vote was a hung parliament.
With unemployment at 10.8 per cent and economic growth in the eurozone’s third-largest economy lagging the average, many Italians have all but given up hope for change. Polls indicated a third hadn’t decided or weren’t even sure they would vote.
The populist 5-Star Movement hoped to capitalize on such disgust, particularly among Italy’s young. Polls indicated the grassroots movement launched in 2009 by comic Beppe Grillo would be the largest vote-getter among any single party. But the 5-Stars weren’t expected to win enough to govern on their own, and they have sworn off forming coali- tions. Still, the movement’s leader, 31-year-old Luigi Di Maio, has recently suggested he would be open to talking with potential allies.
Analysts predicted the only coalition with a shot of reaching an absolute majority is the centre-right, which aside from Berlusconi’s Forza Italia includes the anti-migrant League and the nationalistic, neofascist-rooted Brothers of Italy party.
A topless Femen activist confronted Berlusconi on Sunday, jumping on a table as he was about to hand in his ballot and displaying “Berlusconi, you’ve expired” on her bare torso. Berlusconi, 81, turned away and was escorted out. He can’t run for office because of a tax fraud conviction, but he has tapped European Parliament President Antonio Tajani, considered a proEuropean moderate, as his pick if the centre-right is asked to form a government.
League leader Matteo Salvini is also gunning for the top job, and some pro-European analysts envisioned a possible “nightmare scenario” of an extremist alliance among the 5-Stars, the League and the Brothers of Italy.
Roberto D’Alimonte of Rome’s LUISS University said such an alliance would be “catastrophic” for the financial markets. But he said the 5-Stars will have to decide if they’re going to join the right or the left if they’re going to move from being in the opposition to actually helping govern the country.
“This will be the moment of truth,” he said.
With polls showing the centreleft trailing, Democratic leader Matteo Renzi and the current premier, Paolo Gentiloni, spent the final days of the campaign warning that the only way to guard against a turn to populists and extremists was to vote for the Democrats. Gentiloni has been cited as a possible candidate for premier.
A new law passed last year, ostensibly to make Italy more governable, calls for a combination of direct and proportional voting for both the lower Chamber of deputies, which has 630 seats, and the Senate, which has 315 seats. A few quirks could affect the outcome, particularly for the 5-Stars. For starters, the names of about a dozen 5-Star candidates appeared on the ballot, but they no longer represent the party. If they actually win, other parties can woo them away to beef up their own ranks.
Analysts also warned the ballot itself is confusing and could result in a higher-than-usual percentage of invalid votes. In addition, new anti-fraud measures involved the time-consuming logging of individual ballot serial numbers in voter registry books, and then checking the completed ballot against them to make sure they match.
While European capitals and Brussels were watching the outcome of the vote for its effects on policy and markets, some in Italy had more at stake personally. Berlusconi has vowed to deport 600,000 migrants if the centreright wins — a sentiment also endorsed by the anti-migrant Salvini.
“I fear these results because I have arrived here with all my thoughts and dreams,” said Musab Badur, an asylum-seeker from Sudan who is living in a Milan shelter. “And I never thought that one day maybe I would have to go back.”