As in 1990, Ontario’s NDP in a good position to win an upset victory

Liberals out of favour, not their NDP-like policy, so Horwath might get the votes

In 1990, Ontario’s New Democrats pulled off a miracle, winning government for the first time in the province’s history.

They have a chance to do it again. As in 1990, the stars have aligned for the NDP. They face a deeply unpopular Liberal premier on one side and a controversial Progressive Conservative leader on the other.

As in 1990, they also boast a leader, Andrea Horwath, who scores high in the popularity ratings.

In 1990, then premier David Peterson’s Liberals deked left in areas like the environment so as to vacuum up the so-called progressive vote. But the strategy backfired. Faced with a choice between his centre-left Liberals and Bob Rae’s centre-left New Democrats, voters opted for the latter.

Today, Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals are following a similar strategy in an effort to outflank Horwath’s New Democrats from the left. That too could backfire.

History never repeats itself exactly. There are key differences between 1990 and now.

In particular, the PCs are in far better shape then they were then.

In 1990, riven by internal warfare, the Tories stood at third place in the Legislature.

Their newly chosen leader, a rightwinger named Mike Harris, was not widely known. Around the province, traditional PC ridings were up for grabs.

The Tories weren’t expected to do well. And they didn’t.

The other big difference is that in 1990, no one — including New Democrats — thought the NDP had a chance of winning. The accepted wisdom held that the Peterson Liberals would be handily re-elected. Media companies didn’t even bother to poll until late in the campaign, so sure were they of the outcome.

As a result, the NDP received virtually no scrutiny. Late in the campaign, their platform was hastily scribbled out by a senior party operative on the back of an air sickness bag. But it didn’t matter. Who cared about the platform of a party that, it was assumed, would never form government?

Not until the campaign was virtually over did the pundits and other usual suspects (including me) realize how unpopular the Liberals had become. Not until then did the voters realize that they were about to elect Ontario’s first NDP government.

Today, by contrast, there is near constant public polling. Recent polls show Doug Ford’s PCs handily in the lead.

But they also show Horwath’s NDP moving into second place. If the New Democrats begin to take off, no one should be surprised.

For the NDP to win on June 7, two things have to happen. First, they must replace the Liberals as the default alternative to Ford’s Conservatives. There are signs this is already beginning to happen. Thursday’s decision by the Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario to support the NDP is one.

The teachers unions usually call on their members to vote strategically for the candidates — Liberal or NDP — that can best defeat the Tories. It now seems, in ETFO’s mind at least, that this means supporting the NDP all down the line.

Second, the NDP has to find a way to take on Ford. Dismissing him as a mad bully and clone of U.S. President Donald Trump will not work.

Ford is a classic Ontario blue Tory. But he has shown himself to be more disciplined than Trump and not at all mad. The so-called middle class income tax cut he announced Thursday, for instance, is lifted directly from Justin Trudeau’s playbook.

In 1990, Ontario voters wanted a change of government.

But they didn’t want fundamental change. In their wisdom, they elected a party that they figured would continue on with the policy stance of the Peterson Liberals but do so more effectively. They elected the other Liberals.

If today’s voters are in a similar mood, then the NDP has a good shot. Experts can parse the differences between the Liberal and NDP child care or pharmacare promises. But I suspect most voters see the two party platforms as near-identical.

Those who like the Liberal promises (but not the Liberals) should find it easy to vote NDP.

But if today’s voters want radical change — if they want to blow the whole thing apart — well, that’s a different story.