Slim PC majority predicted in mix of polls

Laurier political prof says Waterloo Region battleground split could help determine next Ontario premier

WATERLOO REGION — Despite a virtual tie in the polls, the Progressive Conservatives are still predicted to win a slim majority over the NDP on Thursday night. A new aggregate study of recent opinion polls released Monday by the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy, also known as LISPOP, suggests the PC Party could win 67 seats on June 7, followed by the New Democrats (52 seats) and Liberals (five). A total of 63 seats are needed to form a majority government. The projection comes despite opinion polls that put the NDP and Conservatives tied at 37 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 19 per cent.

Barry Kay, associate professor of political science at Wilfrid Laurier University, prepared the seat projection analysis for LISPOP, and said the difference between the PCs and NDP is vote efficiency.

“The NDP is wasting votes by winning some seats by big margins,” Kay said.

“The Conservatives, by contrast, are more evenly spread out throughout the province.”

Locally, LISPOP forecasts the PCs have the edge in Kitchener-Conestoga, and the NDP has a big lead in Waterloo and a small lead in Kitchener Centre. Both Kitchener SouthHespeler and Cambridge are too close to call.

That could spell trouble for local Liberals, Kay said, including a pair of former cabinet min-

isters in Kitchener Centre MPP Daiene Vernile (former minister of tourism, culture and sport) and Cambridge MPP Kathryn McGarry (former minister of transport). Both women were first elected in 2014.

“I think (the Liberals) are going to run third in every (local) riding,” Kay said.

The LISPOP analysis is a weighted and blended aggregation of polls from Abacus, Pollara, Ekos, Forum and Research Co. — from about 8,000 respondents — that have been released since May 31. But it does not take into account the Saturday concession from Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne that her party won’t win the June 7 election.

“I don’t know who voters will choose, but I am pretty sure that it won’t be me. After Thursday, I will no longer be Ontario’s premier,” Wynne told reporters.

She urged voters to elect strong Liberal candidates to help prevent a PC or NDP majority.

How Wynne’s concession will impact the election is up for debate. Geoffrey Stevens, who teaches political science at Wilfrid Laurier University and the University of Guelph, thinks it will help the NDP.

He cited a recent Abacus Data poll released Saturday morning, before Wynne’s admission, that found nearly 80 per cent of Liberal voters would prefer an NDP government over the PCs.

Kay noted if the NDP has a shot at winning more seats than the Conservatives, they’ll have to win many of the seats currently considered too close to call by LISPOP. That includes a swath of at least 10 ridings in the Greater Toronto Area, including much of Mississauga and some in the north end of Toronto.

Those areas went predominantly Liberal after the 2014 election that resulted in a Liberal majority.

“There are pockets where the NDP is picking up a lot of seats, but at the moment not enough to form the government,” Kay said.

If the LISPOP predictions hold true, it would represent a significant swing from the 2014 election results, when the governing Liberals won 58 seats, the PCs won 28 and the NDP won 21. This year, 124 ridings are up for grabs — 17 more than 2014.

Election day is this Thursday, June 7. For more information go to www.elections.on.ca or call 1-888-668-8683.