What’s in a future under Ford?

Every new leader deserves a chance to succeed, even if his or her victory on election night gave you a headache.

Part of me is looking forward to what Doug Ford’s approach will be as premier of Ontario. Another part of me is very nervous.

Ford has said he’ll cut red tape and waste in Ontario’s budget, to find $6 billion in efficiencies.

Here’s what those plans may look like for Waterloo Region (assuming the looming tariffs from the United States don’t knock our economy completely onto its back).

On transit, the good news is that all-day, two-way GO trains are a sacred cow in Waterloo Region. Ford has promised to put “the pedal to the metal” on these trains to get them running as quickly as possible.

But don’t be surprised to see more action for Cambridge, as well, with the promised passenger rail line to Guelph that would connect with GO trains to and from Toronto. After all, Cambridge sent Ford two Conservative MPPs — Amy Fee and Belinda Karahalios.

By contrast, Kitchener-Waterloo brought in two New Democrats (Catherine Fife and Laura Mae Lindo) and just one Conservative (Mike Harris Jr.), who probably wouldn’t have made it if not for the reliably Tory voters in the rural parts of the riding.

So Ford has good reason to keep Cambridge happy.

High-speed rail is a whole different story. Consider it to be in a lengthy coma from which it will not awaken until the Liberals return to office. Sure, Ford has said he will continue with the environmental assessment. But there is zero chance he will push through with the project. It’s too expensive. Even the NDP wasn’t going to fund it.

This $11-billion project, which would build fast trains between London and Toronto, with stops in Kitchener, Guelph and Toronto Pearson International Airport, was a Liberal signature plan that has been lobbied for hard by the tech sector.

But it has lost its most important advocate, departing Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne.

What about the Cambridge light rail project? Strangely enough, it may be less affected by Ford’s cuts, simply because it is so early in its life, says regional councillor Tom Galloway.

A route hasn’t yet been chosen. We’re more than a year away from making an ask for provincial funds. Even if Ford’s Conservatives say no, it likely won’t affect the final timing of the project, expected in the mid 2020s.

Meanwhile, Ford’s promised cut in gas prices will be achieved by cutting the gas tax, of which municipalities get a share to expand transit services. If people aren’t paying the tax, that revenue stream will dry right up.

Supervised injection sites are a hot topic in the region, especially Cambridge, where a report is due

to come before council next week.

Ford has said he is sympathetic to people with addictions, but is “dead against” supervised injection sites.

“If your son, daughter, loved one ever had an addiction, would you want them to go in a little area and do more drugs? I am dead against that,” Ford said in April.

“We have to help these people. We can’t just keep feeding them and feeding them.”

That likely means cities like Cambridge and Kitchener shouldn’t expect provincial funding if they want to create a supervised injection site to make it safer for those who continue to use illegal drugs.

They can certainly go ahead and set up the sites, but municipal funds will likely be needed to operate them. And those funds may be in short supply soon.

In order to make the promised budget cuts without touching the giant portfolios of education and health, Ford and his cabinet will have to direct their scissors on the 30 per cent of provincial spending that focuses on everything else: transfers to municipalities, arts and culture, and social services to name a few.

Local citizens can keep these services, but they’ll have to accept much higher taxes municipally. And, of course, those are levied, regressively, on the value of your home, not the size of your income.

Profound change is almost always messy. The election of June 2018 promises a bumpy ride ahead.