Do roadside political signs have an impact?
Research shows very slight increases in vote shares, but not much
WATERLOO REGION — Do roadside political signs actually make a difference?
The answer, in short, is not really.
“There are, maybe, very marginal effects in terms of persuasion, but for the most part, they’re in line with other lowtech campaign tactics, like direct mail pieces,” said Anna Esselment, an associate professor in the department of political science at the University of Waterloo.
Esselment said election signs have no direct effect on vote numbers, but she adds that it does increase name recognition, which, as it turns out, is a big part of the game when it comes to municipal elections.
“Even though it might not increase turnout at all, for voters who do decide to go and vote in low-information elections … if you do have a sign that just had your name and maybe your ward, your name might be at least be somewhat familiar, and that familiarity might lead voters to putting down your name on the ballot.”
There have been very limited studies done on the effectiveness of roadside signage.
One of those studies was conducted by Donald Green of Columbia University, where there was a 1.7 per cent increase in voter share — a positive increase, but not a substantial one.
“It appears that signs typically have a modest effect on advertising candidates’ vote shares — an effect that is probably greater than zero but unlikely to be large enough to alter the outcome of a contest that would otherwise be decided by more than a few percentage points,” the study says.
In Waterloo Region, posting roadside signs became slightly more difficult just before the provincial election. Regional councillors passed an amendment to the existing bylaw, with the most notable change being the distance allowed between signs. Council decided that there must be at least one metre between each sign. If campaigners are found to be in contravention, both parties are notified, and if no one moves their sign, both are removed by municipal enforcement.
Political signs are currently allowed only on regional roads. Roads that belong to the cities of Cambridge, Waterloo and Kitchener do not allow for pop-up signs.
With some Waterloo candidates, including Mayor Dave Jaworsky, opting to put photos of themselves on their signs, Esselment is unsure of whether or not that would have a strong effect on voter turnout.
“The one thing I could see is relating with a certain segment of the population,” said Esselment, using a visible minority candidate as an example. “It might be helpful because it’s a sense of belonging to a group.”
In general, Esselment said, municipal elections require more work on the part of the individual candidate. Without candidates being able to rely on a party and the volunteers that typically go hand-in-hand, there is much more legwork to be done, not only to advertise, but to get the platform across.