Federal parties see opportunities in Quebec politics

How will the new Coalition Avenir Québec government be received in Ottawa?

MONTREAL — In the wake of the election earlier this month of a Coalition Avenir Québec government, Parliament Hill insiders and Quebec watchers have been scrambling to figure out how the new dynamics will play out in next year’s federal vote.

It is testimony to the uncertainty that attends the arrival of an unknown untested quantity in power in Quebec that so far every major federal political family has found a silver lining in the vote.

Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives are hoping the new premier will turn out to be a kindred right-of-centre spirit liable to pick fights with Justin Trudeau and in the process level the Quebec playing field in their favour in time for next fall’s vote.

The Liberals, on the contrary, see Premier François Legault as pro-carbon pricing cat about to be set loose among the conservative provincial pigeons.

The New Democrats are looking to the sharp increase in the vote and the seat count of the left-wing Québec solidaire to chart a path of their own to salvation next year.

But if one were to draw just one conclusion from the swearing-in this week of Quebec’s CAQ cabinet, it is that Legault’s government will not be easily pigeonholed.

Here are some highlights from Thursday’s ceremony:

There is a reason why Quebec’s new ruling party is called a coalition and it was very much in evidence at the swearing-in.

Legault’s team includes people who hail from a variety of sections of the province’s political spectrum.

Former well-connected insiders from the Bloc and the Parti Québécois, the federal and provincial Liberals as well as Stephen Harper’s recent Conservative team all cohabit under its tent.

If anything the diverse political backgrounds of so many key CAQ players makes it highly unlikely that Legault’s government will want to pick a dog in the upcoming federal fight.

Like Trudeau’s federal cabinet, the CAQ’s ministerial lineup is gender-balanced. In contrast with the prime minister, Legault hand-picked most of the candidates who ran under his party banner. His lineup featured a high number of women.

No one would describe the CAQ — as it stands today — as a party with a strong grassroots culture. But the upside is that when it came to crafting a cabinet, Legault suffered from an embarrassment of riches and not just on the gender parity front.

The CAQ’s relative surplus of talent is offset by a deficit of government experience. Besides Legault, only one junior minister has ever held a portfolio.

Legault is not the first premier to come to power with a very green team. The Ontario NDP under Bob Rae in 1990 and, more recently, the Alberta New Democrats faced a similar predicament. That did cause both some growing pains. Time will tell whether Legault’s government will be similarly affected.

The millennial generation is entering the CAQ government through the front door. Geneviève Guilbault — Legault’s deputy premier — is 35 years old.

Simon Jolin-Barrette, who will be doing triple duty as government house leader and minister in charge of implementing the party’s contentious immigration and secularism policies, is 32 years old.

Parliament Hill may see a lot of justice minister Sonia LeBel over the coming months and years. She has been designated as the cabinet’s Ottawa/Quebec gobetween. If she looks familiar, it is because she was the lead prosecutor at Quebec’s recent public corruption inquiry.

LeBel has also been tasked with drafting a bill to move Quebec to a more proportional system in time for the next provincial vote. On Thursday, Legault reiterated his commitment to translate the preelection pledge he co-signed with two of the three opposition parties into legislation within his first year in office.

The electoral reform debate will be alive and well in Trudeau’s home province at the time of next fall’s federal campaign. It will make it harder for the prime minister to bury his broken signature promise under a host of new commitments.

It is rare for an incoming premier — especially one vested with a governing majority — to take time in his first address to highlight a major shortcoming of his election platform. On Thursday, Legault said his party should have done more homework on the environment.

He promised the CAQ would implement a robust climate-change policy. In Quebec at least, a more conservative government does not mean one that rejects the notion of carbon pricing.

A word in closing: this is the second time a Trudeau is in power federally at a time when a new party comes to government in Quebec. But the similarities stop there for Justin Trudeau is bound to get along better with Legault than his father did with PQ founder René Lévesque. And that too is a sign that the times have changed.