Coaches grow bolder with pulling the goalie
Mathematical model says NHL teams are still waiting too long
Eyebrows were raised earlier this month when Dallas Stars head coach Jim Montgomery pulled his goalie with just under eight minutes left in the third period and his team trailing by two goals.
The tactic didn’t work in the end — the Ottawa Senators eventually scored into the empty net with about 90 seconds remaining for a 4-1 victory — but there’s an argument to made, at least mathematically, that even a call that bold came too late.
“I just wanted to put a little more urgency and give ourselves a chance,” Montgomery said after the game. “I thought the pulled-goalie situation actually worked.
“We just didn’t score.”
In their paper Pulling the Goalie: Hockey and Investment Implications published earlier this year, billionaire Clifford Asness of AQR Capital Management and New York University math professor Aaron Brown found that coaches don’t pull goalies nearly soon enough.
Using a mathematical model that took into account scoring probability, the deficit faced and time on the clock, the authors wrote that teams trailing by one should pull their netminder in favour of a sixth attacker with 6:10 remaining, and that a club facing a two-goal deficit should make the move with a whopping 13 minutes left.
In years past, NHL coaches down a goal or two in a game have usually pulled their goalie with anywhere from 60 seconds to two minutes remaining in regulation.
This season has seen goalies removed for a sixth skater earlier, often with about three minutes remaining when trailing by one.
That’s a pretty big step in the usually conservative hockey world, but it’s hard to envision a team pulling its goalie the way the Stars did, or even sooner, on a consistent basis.
“There’s so many variables that are associated with those situations,” Pittsburgh Penguins head coach Mike Sullivan said recently. “It’s very difficult, in my mind, to quantify the perfect time.”
St. Louis Blues head coach Mike Yeo said a number of factors play into the decision of when to make the call for a sixth skater.
“Some of it has to be feel for the game, how much momentum you have,” he said. “When you’re dealing with the pulling the goalie, the odds are still against you.”
Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Mike Babcock has pulled the goalie around the three-minute mark in each of his team’s three losses, but said the exact moment has a lot to do with his forward rotation.
“Any time after four minutes or three minutes (left to play), that’s kind of what we’re going through,” he said.
Calling it “an interesting discussion,” Sullivan agreed with Yeo that a coach has to know his players and the situation, and not simply trust what the numbers indicate is the ideal time to pull the goalie.
“That’s probably the art of coaching, where you know your team, you have a feel for how the game is going,” he said. “Based on that, you can try to make the best decision.”
Sid makes his case
With plenty of talk about which 21-year-old superstar — Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews — currently owns the unofficial title of “the best player in the world,” Sidney Crosby showed once again he still belongs in the discussion.
The 31-year-old Penguins captain scored a jaw-dropping goal in overtime Tuesday to lead Pittsburgh over McDavid’s Oilers 6-5. Crosby dangled past Ryan Strome — deking the Edmonton forward to his knees — avoided a stick check from Oilers defenceman and Hamilton native Darnell Nurse and then patiently flipped a backhand upstairs on goalie Cam Talbot.
“I think he showed tonight he’s the best player in the world,” Penguins forward Patric Hornqvist said afterward.
Halloween comes early
Nashville head coach Peter Laviolette told his team he would don a bull mask if the Predators swept their recent road trip in Calgary and Edmonton.
After 5-3 victory over the Flames and a 3-0 shutout of the Oilers on back-to-back nights, Laviolette kept his word, doing his postgame media scrum while sporting the mask.
It’s not the first time Laviolette has made good on a bet. The Predators coaching staff wore Christmas-themed suits last December following a similar promise.