Islamic State wreaking havoc as Nigeria nears vote

Amina Sanusi was getting ready for morning prayers at her home in northeastern Nigeria when she heard gunshots and explosions.

She scrambled into nearby bushes with her two children, but lost contact with her husband. Government soldiers in the fishing town of Baga on the shores of Lake Chad fled, too, overwhelmed by the firepower of Islamist militants. Like thousands of others since an upsurge in attacks that started in December, Sanusi, 25, made a 200-kilometre journey by foot and by bus to a camp for displaced people in the Borno state capital, Maiduguri.

“The soldiers tried, but it was too much for them,” said Sanusi, wearing a black hijab and breastfeeding her daughter in the Dalori camp. “We were so afraid. I still don’t know what happened to my husband. I’m praying for him.’’

The violence in northeastern Nigeria underscores the insecurity plaguing Africa’s biggest oil producer and, by some measures, largest economy ahead of a tight election on Saturday. President Muhammadu Buhari, a 76-year-old former general, is seeking a second term and faces his main challenge from Atiku Abubakar, 72, a businessman who once served as a vice-president.

For now, militants loyal to Boko Haram, which has killed tens of thousands of people in the past decade, and a breakaway faction loyal to Islamic State that more recently appeared on the scene, seem to be gathering momentum.

They ambushed the convoy of Borno’s governor, Kashim Shettima, on Tuesday while he was campaigning near the border with Cameroon, killing at least three people, his spokesperson said. Islamic State’s so-called West Africa Province claimed the attack and said that 42 were dead, according to the SITE Intelligence Group.

The Islamist insurgency, which is affecting countries across West Africa, is the worst of a series of crises threatening to overwhelm the military and police and undermining Buhari’s campaign pledge before his 2015 victory to restore security.

At least 66 people died in a wave of violence this week in north central Kaduna state, AP reported, citing a local official.

“Africa’s most populous country is in for a turbulent few weeks,” said Ben West, an analyst at Stratfor, a risk-advisory firm based in Austin, Texas. “Growing unrest across the country creates an environment for Nigeria’s many regional and sectarian security threats to fester and spread leading up to and following the election.”