Quebec rolls the COVID-19 dice

Quebec lived up to its “distinct society” status this week, but not in a good way. Premier Francois Legault’s plan to end the province’s COVID-19 lockdown is distinctly different in Canada — and carries distinct risks to public health.

Over the three weeks that begin Monday, hundreds of thousands of Quebec workers will return to factories, construction sites and stores. On May 11, the province’s elementary schools will also start reopening.

Yet all this is happening too soon. It’s happening even as Quebec remains the province hardest hit by the pandemic in Canada and its hospitals are being pushed to their limits in the face of an ongoing rise in new cases of the disease.

And it’s happening over the objections of many parents, teachers and labour unions who rightly fear it will result in more sick and dead Quebecers.

Even Quebec’s public health leaders admit Legault’s plan amounts to a “risky bet,” while the province’s public health institute warns the back-toschool strategy could lead to a new coronavirus surge.

Many Ontarians criticized Premier Doug Ford this week when he announced a plan to lift the province’s COVID-19 restrictions that lacked a starting date. They should be grateful their premier is proceeding with greater caution than his Quebec counterpart. Legault is rolling the dice with people’s lives.

It’s understandable that after weeks of a provincewide lockdown that has paralyzed the Quebec economy and imposed unprecedented demands on an increasing weary population, Legault is searching for an exit strategy.

We all know that closing schools and businesses while demanding that people stay home whenever possible can only continue for so long. At some point, the costs not just to the economy but to mental health will be too great to sustain such all-encompassing lockdowns.

The challenge is knowing when to end the restrictions. In Canada, provinces such as Manitoba and Saskatchewan, which will also start reopening on Monday, have not suffered from COVID-19 like Quebec.

As of Thursday, Quebec had recorded 27,538 cases of the disease, more than any other province, and 1,859 deaths, again more than any other province. While Quebec’s population is 60 per cent of Ontario’s, it’s had 71 per cent more COVID-19 fatalities.

Despite these numbers, Premier Legault says his government can safely manage the reopening of businesses and schools. With the vast majority of the province’s COVID-19 cases in long-term care facilities, the premier insists his relaunch won’t threaten the general public’s health.

But there’s likely another reason underpinning Legault’s plan, one he’s no longer discussing publicly.

Last week, Legault talked about “herd immunity” as part of his plan. This means trying to develop a widespread and natural immunity by exposing a large proportion of Quebecers to the novel coronavirus in a gradual and carefully staged fashion.

At the time, Legault argued that less than 10 per cent of the province is naturally immune to COVID-19 and said that number won’t increase unless the province begins resuming many activities.

“The idea is to go very gradually so that people who are less at risk can develop antibodies to be able to become immune,” he explained then.

It’s a pity he didn’t pay attention to the harm the “herd health” approach has done in other places. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson flirted with the same idea in his country — until the death rate skyrocketed and he backed off. We can only hope Quebec’s experience is different.

“Life goes on,” Legault said this week. Yes, but In this pandemic so does death.