Conestoga College drives into a thunderstorm

It might seem harsh that employees at Conestoga College are being forced to use up all their paid vacation days for the year by the beginning of August.

But it’s merely the first drop of rain in the thunderstorm that’s coming.

“We’ve got to get ready for a new world,” said college president John Tibbits.

Tibbits says the COVID-19 pandemic is “the biggest external threat to college operations” since Conestoga began, 53 years ago.

Although it’s hard to predict exactly what the next few years will look like, the college is looking at a $50-million to $70million loss in revenue this fiscal year. Its annual operating budget is about $400 million.

All college campuses closed in mid-March in response to the pandemic. The spring term is happening online, beginning May 19.

The fall term is a question mark. But there will be disruption.

Among institutes of higher education, Conestoga is particularly vulnerable. There are two main reasons. First, it relies heavily on a hands-on learning environment. That environment must undergo a profound change if the college can open in September.

Second, more than half its students are from outside Canada. The college had nearly 11,000 enrolled this year, more than University of Waterloo and Wilfrid Laurier University combined. But that made it difficult for the college when travel is restricted.

Already there are 1,000 fewer foreign students starting spring term than the college expected, creating a tuition shortfall of $10 million.

Here are just some of the changes Conestoga anticipates as it approaches the 2020-21 school year: á To control the spread of the virus, masks will be worn by everyone and technology will be used to ensure there is no crowding in the buildings. That means additional cost.

á Instead of having 24 students in a lab at one time, procedures will change to allow, say, eight students in at a time so that physical distancing can be maintained. That means three shifts in one lab (morning, afternoon and evening), with deep cleaning between shifts. Both the cleaner and the lab instructor will need to work more hours and be paid more.

á To make room for these smaller groups of students, continuing education classes will be suspended.

á Millions of dollars will be spent to adjust the curriculum and train instructors and staff for remote learning. Virtual reality, embedded video and simulated environments will take the place of classroom equipment and experiences.

á Some training programs, including for personal support workers and health-care workers, will expand.

á To ease the financial crunch, renovations will have to wait at the Reuter Drive building in Cambridge, which the college had bought in order to house its trades training programs. That’s $45 to $50 million in expenses that can be put off till later. But not forever.

á Fewer Canadian first-year students are expected to start in the fall, leading to another loss of revenue. Because high schools have experienced major disruption too, and because of widespread unemployment, Tibbits thinks many Grade 12 students will prefer to repeat their final year in high school for free, rather than pay to come to college.

á Hundreds of college staff positions are expected to disappear. Some people have already been laid off and others likely will be. Some were expecting to be hired to teach, and won’t be offered contracts. Others have been given incentives to retire.

á After the massive government stimulus spending comes the massive deficits, and then the austerity. Tibbits said Alberta and Manitoba already have made “significant cuts” in their funding of post-secondary education. He is bracing for the same in Ontario.

There is a long road ahead. Many experts are predicting second and third waves of outbreaks, with two or three years before the virus is finally under control.

The uncertainty is the hardest part. Tibbits says it’s not like an earthquake that happens just once, and then you clean up and move on. “It’s aftershock after aftershock,” he said.

Back to the forced vacation: The union says it may be damaging to employees’ mental health if they go 11 months without paid time off. The college, which wants to free itself of the liability, says employees will have opportunities to take unpaid vacation if they need a break.

On the ground, that’s deeply unfortunate for employees. From 30,000 feet above, it’s almost invisible.