SOME OF THE THINGS WE NOW KNOW: THERE IS NO NEW AND IMPROVED VERSION, THERE IS JUST DONALD TRUMP — TAKE HIM OR LEAVE HIM. HILLARY CLINTON, MEANWHILE, NEVER LEAPS BEFORE SHE LOOKS.
Clinton, Trump to clash for next three months
CHRIS CILLIZZA
WASHINGTON • The two party conventions are over. The first week of serious campaigning has begun. The general election is three months away. Now seems like a good time to look at what we know about the clash between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
Here are a few things we think we know:
THERE IS NO TRUMP 2.0
There is no pivot. There is no new and improved version. There is just Donald Trump. Ask yourself this: What successful 70-yearold man — in the immediate aftermath of one of the greatest victories of his life — decides to do things totally differently? The answer is none, particularly one with the level of supreme confidence displayed by Trump. For Republicans desperately hoping that Trump stops attacking members of his own party or takes a break from Twitter, it’s just not going to happen. The continuing controversy over Trump’s comments about the parents of U.S. army Capt. Humayun Khan, a Muslim who was awarded a Bronze Star after he was killed in Iraq, should prove that.
CLINTON IS GOING TO PLAY IT SAFE
Clinton’s defining trait as a politician is her cautiousness. She doesn’t leap before she looks. Ever. What that caution reflects is a belief — never stated publicly — among Clinton and her senior aides that if she does the basic blocking and tackling in swing states, makes no major mistakes and just keeps letting Trump talk, she wins.
IT’S ABOUT THE BOUNCE
Before both conventions, a poll from CBS and The New York Times had Clinton and Trump tied at 40 per cent. Now, according to CBS News, Clinton leads Trump 46 to 39 — a seven-point swing, part of it the bounce from the Democratic convention. The margin of error here means that Trump’s support is essentially unchanged — but Clinton’s gain is real. Broken down by party, Clinton improved dramatically with independent voters.
TRUMP’S NARROW ELECTORAL PATH
If Trump loses this fall, many Republicans will heap blame on him and the campaign he is running. Some of that blame will be fair. Much of it won’t be. Consider this: Eighteen states, plus the District of Columbia, have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in each of the six elections between 1992 and 2012. They yield 242 electoral votes. There are 13 states that have voted for the Republican nominee in every presidential election since 1992. They yield 102 electoral votes. So, if Clinton wins the 18 states in the Blue Wall and wins Florida, the election is over. She is president.
THE ONLY CANDIDATE EACH ONE CAN BEAT
We are dealing with two very unpopular nominees — the two least popular majorparty picks in modern presidential politics. For Trump, the issue is that people simply struggle to see him as someone who could actually be president. His short temper, tendency to overstate and seeming unwillingness to back away from his more divisive rhetoric make Trump less than ideal as a major-party nominee. Meanwhile, Clinton labours under deep doubt about her honesty and trustworthiness. Trump is the only Republican Clinton can beat and Clinton is the only Democrat Trump can beat.
NEXT THREE MONTHS WILL BE NASTY
When you have two candidates who are as disliked as these two, the path to victory isn’t to make yourself more likable — it’s to make the other person even less well liked. You are going to hear a lot more about “Crooked Hillary” from Trump and a lot more about Trump’s comments about women, Hispanics and, well, almost everyone else from Clinton. Brace yourself: It’s going to be the nastiest three months you have ever seen in a political campaign.