Plotting a path to peace in Israel
WASHINGTON • In his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday held back from explicitly endorsing support for a two-state solution. Trump said he’d be open to alternatives if the two sides propose something better. Here’s a look at scenarios that might arise:
ONE STATE
For years this was the goal of the Palestine Liberation Organization, and for many Palestinians is the preferred option: a single democratic state, not defined as specifically Jewish or Arab, in the area of British colonial Palestine. Almost no one in Israel is arguing for the extension of full rights to all Palestinians because even with Gaza excluded, it would leave Arabs constituting close to half the country’s population — and that will eventually spell the end of a Jewish state. This is why Israel has never annexed the West Bank and why many nationalists support a partition, albeit on terms the Palestinians have not accepted and are not likely to.
INTERIM AGREEMENT
Many Israelis have concluded that a final peace agreement with the Palestinians is simply not possible. It is not just about territory: the Palestinians still in theory demand a “right of return” to Israel proper for millions of descendants of Palestinian refugees. But perhaps a partial deal is possible whereby the Palestinians would not have to forego future claims but for now get their state on, say, 80 per cent of the West Bank, with some sort of preferred access or new regime in the Old City of Jerusalem? The Palestinians in the past have ruled it out, fearing the temporary would become permanent.
JORDANIAN OPTION
Jordan is a country with a majority Palestinian-descended population, and some Israelis still think that it can play a role in satisfying Palestinian national aspirations while resuming control over only a part of the West Bank. But this would probably require a collapse of Hashemite rule, founded on Jordan’s Bedouin population, and as such is anathema to the Jordanian monarchy. Adding to the difficulties, the Palestinians reject it altogether as well.
PARTIAL UNILATERAL PULLOUT
In the mid-2000s, the government of Ehud Olmert planned a unilateral pullout from most of the West Bank, to follow the 2005 withdrawal from Gaza. But those plans were upended when Gaza was taken over by Hamas militants. Few want to see that scenario repeated in the West Bank, which is much larger and closer to Israel’s main cities. Now talk grows of a pullout of settlers from some areas, to create a more lasting reality of partition, while the military stays for now, pending some future arrangement.
STATUS QUO
When the best that can be hoped for is the least bad option, the status quo looks attractive to some. This arrangement is brittle and loved by few, and leaves Israel’s democratic credentials open to criticism.