SHOO-INS &SHOULD WINS
A year after #OscarsSoWhite, there are seven visible minorities among the 20 acting Oscar nominees. The mainstream musical La La Land leads with 14 nominations. Denis Villeneuve’s Arrival has eight nods. And Ryan Gosling has one for his portrayal of a jaz
BEST PICTURE
Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight
Should win: The sensitive sci-fi head trip Arrival is tied with the gritty crime yarn Hell or High Water.
Will win: The light-as air La La Land is in stark contrast to the moody Manchester by the Sea and the moving Moonlight. But the musical will likely pick up a statue because Hollywood loves to watch itself.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), Denzel Washington (Fences)
Should win: Nobody does intensity like Denzel Washington. His Fences portrayal of a bitter African-American former Negro league baseball player is engrossing for all the right reasons.
Will win: Casey Affleck’s sullen handyman in Manchester by the Sea is the favourite but Washington has late momentum, so it will be close.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (La La Land), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Should win: Ruth Negga’s subtle but strong-willed Loving champion of equality is memorable and vivid.
Will win: Emma Stone’s darling personality shows itself in interviews and on the La La Land big screen. It’s the perfect one-two punch.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Dev Patel (Lion), Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
Should win: Mahershala Ali’s drug dealer in Moonlight exists only in this hyper-real world, but Ali’s dedication to the portrayal is mesmerizing.
Will win: Mahershala Ali’s drug dealer in Moonlight.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Should win: Call it a tie between Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight) and Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Will win: In Fences, Viola Davis’s abused wife matches Washington’s domineering power, and she deserves a statue for the effort.
DIRECTING
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Should win: Academy voters underestimate the power and glory of Villeneuve’s Arrival, but they shouldn’t.
Will win: Damien Chazelle is rewarded for his what-you-see-is-allyou get straightforward approach in La La Land.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Arrival, Fences, Hidden Figures, Lion, Moonlight
Should win: It’s Arrival for Eric Heisserer’s astute reinvention of Ted Chiang’s story.
Will win: It’s Moonlight, the play Barry Jenkins adapted with playwright Tarell Alvin McCraney,
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Hell or High Water, La La Land, The Lobster, Manchester by the Sea, 20th Century Women Should win: Taylor Sheridan’s Hell or High Water enters the familiar crime genre zone but with inventive twists and turns, making this a compelling buddy movie times two.
Will win: It’s anybody’s guess between Damien Chazelle’s smoothas-silk La La Land and Kenneth Lonergan’s evocative dialogue in Manchester by the Sea. Let’s go with Manchester by the Sea.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, The Red Turtle, Zootopia Should win: It’s the stylish Hollywood anime translation Kubo and the Two Strings. Will win: Zootopia is acceptable and accessible.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The Salesman, Tanna, Toni Erdmann
Should win: Toni Erdmann
Will win: The critical and crowd pleasing Toni Erdmann
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
Audition (The Fools Who Dream) from La La Land, Can’t Stop The Feeling from Trolls, City of Stars from La La Land, The Empty Chair from Jim: The James Foley Story, How Far I’ll Go from Moana
Should win:
How Far I’ll Go from Moana with music and lyrics by Lin-Manuel Miranda, who wrote the Broadway hit Hamilton. If he does win, it gives him a rare EGOT (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar and Tony).
Will win:
The two La La Land songs knock each other out of the running so Miranda picks up his EGOT. He joins 12 other EGOT performers including Barbra Streisand, Audrey Hepburn, Mel Brooks, Whoopi Goldberg, Liza Minnelli and James Earl Jones.