Will spring bring in another early changing of the Leafs?
As Mark Twain famously observed, “everyone talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.”
That has been the conundrum for the Toronto Maple Leafs every failed playoff year since 2004, save for the last lockout when a shorter season gave them a rare break of fair skies. But an 82-game forecast? Never mind Twain, they had to pray for a train wreck in the standings ahead of them, which never happened.
This spring, climate control could be within reach, even though the Eastern seaboard will likely remain under thick cloud into early April. It’s win and you’re in maybe with nine or 10 in their remaining 17 games, not having to run the table as in previous desperate pushes that sapped all physical and mental energy. Beating the Detroit Red Wings 3-2 at home Tuesday was a good omen for a five-game stretch against clubs at or slightly below them in the standings. Next up are the Philadelphia Flyers Thursday at Air Canada Centre, a club two points back.
For hardcore followers of the race, websites such as Sports Club Stats provide daily dishes on the odds of a team making the playoffs based on game results, strength of schedule, past meetings, games in hand, etc. In raw chart form of all 30 teams, the crazy coloured bars look like the Paris Metro system. Plotting the Leafs’ graph, there was the low of 25.36 per cent and a high of 86.96 per cent just a couple of weeks ago.
The win against Detroit, according Sports Club, boosted the Leafs’ chances by 3.1 per cent up to 49.5 per cent, but the New York Islanders’ huge victory over Connor McDavid and the Oilers on the road was deemed a 10.6 per cent bump to nearly 60 per cent certainty the Isles will hold their current wild-card spot or improve upon it. Toronto is being pursued by three teams within four points of it, including the Flyers, who are on a four-game road trip this week.
“The home games are most important,” Leafs centre Tyler Bozak said. “That’s where you think you have a little bit of an advantage. Those are the ones we have to be our best at.”
Counting Thursday, the Leafs have nine to go in their barn, four to end the schedule. With most teams having finished their schedule against the Western Conference, the Eastern headsto-heads and the possibility of three-point games can see the slightest fluctuations in points move teams in and out of a spot in a matter of minutes as each game ends. There is no avoiding talk about the standings anymore with the Leafs keeping them posted in the dressing room.
“Now I do check them each day,” admitted Bozak. “I like to see how the teams around us in the same area are doing. You check at the end of the night, but it’s not too much to worry about right now. It’s up to us to win our games and whatever happens, happens. If we win our games, we should be OK.”
While Toronto is getting used to being in control of its own destiny again, the Flyers were right about here this time last year. From the ninth seed, they made it to the post-season dance, making up eight points to knock out the Bruins.
“Every game is a playoff game,” Philly defenceman Radko Gudas told reporters Tuesday after a win against the Sabres. “The playoff push is on and we need every point we can get.”