PREDICTING THE JUNOS
Lynn Saxberg examines who should win and who will win in Ottawa this weekend.
It’s time for the Canadian music industry to honour its stars in the 46th annual edition of the Juno Awards.
The main event will be televised live Sunday in 4K on CTV and CTV GO from Ottawa’s Canadian Tire Centre, the Junos’ third visit to the nation’s capital in the last 15 years. Co-hosted by comedian Russell Peters and rocker Bryan Adams, the show is brimming with performers, including Billy Talent, Dallas Smith, July Talk, Arkells, A Tribe Called Red, Alessia Cara, Ruth B., Shawn Mendes, The Strumbellas, Canadian Music Hall of Fame inductee Sarah McLachlan, and Feist, featured in a tribute to Leonard Cohen.
In fact, there are so many performers, it won’t leave much time for many of the 44 awards to be handed out on camera. As in past years, most of the trophies will be presented during a gala dinner on Saturday, leaving just a half-dozen or so for the broadcast.
To prepare, here’s a look at how the nominees are determined in some of the top categories, with predictions, both wishful and realistic, as to who will nab the prizes.
SINGLE
What was the song that defined
us this year? Nominees in this category are determined by their most popular song based on digital downloads, radio spins and streams, then members of the Canadian Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences cast votes for the winner.
Contenders: Teen heartthrob Mendes’ Treat You Better, a Bieberesque tale of an abusive relationship; Drake’s throbbing chart-topper One Dance featuring Wizkid & Kyla, named the 2016 song of the summer by Billboard magazine; Cara’s carefree celebration of youth, Wild Things; The Weeknd’s transformative collaboration with Daft Punk, Starboy; and folk-rockers The Strumbellas’ joyful U.S. breakthrough Spirits, which made it to the top of Billboard’s alternative songs chart.
Wishful: The Strumbellas for two reasons: Spirits is a ridiculously infectious and accessible tune and it’s great to see a band that has slogged it out across the country earn wider recognition.
Realistic: Drake’s One Dance because of his global star power, not to mention the industry boost of Billboard’s stamp of approval.
ALBUM
The Weeknd, Cohen and Celine Dion have all won this award in the past. Nominees are based on sales or rather, “consumption,” which is determined through a process that includes album sales, single sales and streaming data.
Contenders: Starboy, the hit album by Abél Tesfaye, a.k.a. The Weeknd; Mendes’ coming-of-age balladry on Illuminate; Cohen’s final masterpiece, Darker; Drake’s Grammy-nominated, multi-platinum, fourth full-length Views; and Dion’s Encore un Soir, her first French-language studio album since 2012.
Wishful: The deep-voiced poet Cohen for writing a bleak, but stellar album in his 80s. It was released a month before his death.
Realistic: It’s a popularity contest and Drizzy wins.
ARTIST
To come up with nominees for the artist of the year, it’s a mix of sales/consumption, industry votes and Next Big Sound data, which includes social-media analytics. In other words, numbers count, but so does the human factor. The trophy has gone to The Weeknd for the past two years in a row. Will he make it three?
Contenders: Sensitive teen heartthrob Mendes, rap superstar Drake, pop sweetheart Cara, the late legend Cohen and Selena Gomez’s new squeeze The Weeknd.
Wishful: Cara for proving you don’t have to sexualize your image to be successful in showbiz. Talent has taken her a long way in a short time.
Realistic: Academy members have a track record of following their hearts in casting votes in this category, often rewarding the artist whose story grabs their heartstrings. This year, that would be Cohen.
GROUP
This is another category in which nominees are determined by the numbers (sales/consumption and Next Big Sound data), as well as academy votes by actual humans. Four of the five nominated acts have won in past years.
Contenders: Toronto rockers Billy Talent, Can-rock heroes The Tragically Hip, Hamilton pop-rockers Arkells and tuneful activists Tegan and Sara, who have already won the best-group trophy, and The Strumbellas, who have not, although they took home the 2014 Juno for roots and traditional group of the year.
Wishful: Maybe it’s The Strumbellas’ turn in recognition of their breakthrough year?
Realistic: After witnessing the national outpouring of grief that accompanied The Tragically Hip’s farewell tour last summer, it’s hard to imagine academy voters overlooking any opportunity to bring them to the podium. The veteran Kingston, Ont.-bred band has not won this category in 20 years.
SONGWRITER
To be eligible, individual songwriters or a songwriting team submit three songs, which are screened by a committee in two rounds of voting, then handed over to a judge to determine the nominees. Sales figures are not a factor. The winner is selected by CARAS voters.
Contenders: The field ranges from Cohen’s final material from You Want it Darker, to the first songs written by Edmonton newcomer Ruth B., who has yet to release a full-length album. It also includes Vancouver popmeisters Tegan and Sara, rootsy Sarnia, Ont., native Donovan Woods and The Tragically Hip’s Gord Downie, who gets the nod for tracks on his solo project Secret Path.
Wishful: One of these years, Tegan and Sara should get this award to reward the evolution of their songwriting over eight albums.
Realistic: Downie will have the emotional vote. As every Canadian knows, The Hip singer was diagnosed with incurable brain cancer and then last year put out the powerful Secret Path, drawing attention to the issue of residential schools. His songs tell the story of Chanie Wenjack, the young indigenous boy who ran away from a residential school in Kenora, Ont., 50 years ago and died trying to make it home.