Cubs trying to shake World Series hangover
A month and a half into season, there’s no sugar-coating the Cubs’ subpar record
The Chicago Cubs woke up Monday in fourth place in the National League Central and a game under .500, at 18-19. They are 3½ games behind the first-place St. Louis Cardinals and nine games behind their pace of a year ago, when they were 27-10 through 37 games.
For a long time, the Cubs wondered whether there would be a hangover from last fall’s cathartic World Series title, but hangovers don’t generally last for six weeks.
It isn’t just one thing ailing the Cubs. They recently endured a streak of seven straight games in which they committed at least one error. Their defensive efficiency has gone from first in the majors in 2016 to 21st this year. They are hitting an NL-low .214 with runners in scoring position. Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and Addison Russell are all flirting with the Mendoza line. Of the eight members of their starting lineup, only Kris Bryant has an OPS above .750, and he missed the past three games with injury. They have scored just six runs in their past four games, three of them losses.
The Cubs might feel lucky to be starting a 10-game homestand Tuesday, but they are just 7-9 at Wrigley Field this year.
Still, the biggest culprit in the Cubs’ season-long slog through mediocrity has been starting pitching. The top four members of their vaunted 2016 rotation — Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Kyle Hendricks — have all regressed, with gains in ERA ranging from around one run, in the case of Lester, to around two and a half runs, in the case of Arrieta. All have seen their WHIPs rise accordingly.
“Starting pitching drives the engine,” Cubs manager Joe Maddon told reporters over the weekend. “When you’re doing that right, everything else has a better opportunity or chance. Your defence gets better. Contact is not as hard. Hitters don’t have to battle from behind all the time. There’s more pressure on the other side.
“All those things are interconnected. So as we pitch better, we’ll play better.”
Starting rotations often experience a decline in the year following a World Series run, with the added workloads and reduced recovery time exacting a toll.
For the Cubs, Arrieta is by far the most worrisome of their wayward starters. His ERA has gone from 1.77 in 2015, when he won the NL Cy Young Award, to 3.10 in 2016 to 5.44 this year. It’s probably not coincidental that his odometer readings from 2015 and 2016 — 248⅔ and 219⅔ innings pitched, respectively, regular and post-season combined — were the highest of his career.
Arrieta’s slide comes at an inopportune time for him, with free agency at the end of the season.
“I don’t think there’s any reason to panic,” Arrieta said after a loss Sunday in St. Louis. “The talent we have here will correct itself and start to turn itself around. … We’d like to win a few more games.”
It was fashionable to ponder whether the Cubs might have the makings of a dynasty, given the youthfulness of their lineup, the strength of their farm system and the revenues driving their engine.
The organization’s strategy of growing its bats — the bulk of the Cubs’ everyday players are products of their farm system — and importing its arms seemed like a sound one when the team was winning 103 games on its way to a championship a year ago.
But now, with those same pitchers appearing worn out and in need of a collective breather, it is fair to wonder whether this group can turn it around in 2017, or if the Cubs need to make some changes.