Five key pivots in Conservative race

FROM O’LEARY TO VOTE-RIGGING

EARLY FAVOURITES DECIDE TO STAY OUT

A series of moments at the beginning ensured the race would feel wide-open and prompted a plurality of otherwise non-competitors to get their foot in the door.

In spring 2016, Rona Ambrose was being courted to continue as leader despite her decision not to — and the party’s constitution prohibiting it. But the “Draft Rona” campaign didn’t pan out.

It was around that time that Conservatives looking for a star candidate were seeking Saskatchewan premier Brad Wall, former Progressive Conservative leader Peter MacKay and former cabinet minister Jason Kenney. Not one bite.

KELLIE LEITCH AND TRUMP’S ‘EXCITING MESSAGE’

Leading up to the U.S. election in November, candidate Kellie Leitch played up her support of Donald Trump’s policies, and his restrictive stance on immigration in particular.

Leitch’s idea to test immigrants for “Canadian values” and anti-elite rhetoric dominated early coverage of the campaign, but her election-night assertion that Trump had an “exciting message” stood out to her opponents.

Her campaign would go on to book appearances on American networks such as Fox News, and place ads on right-wing websites such as Breitbart, which saw one of its founders join Trump’s White House after his election.

O’LEARY BECOMES PRESUMPTIVE FRONT-RUNNER

After a year of speculation surrounding his possible candidacy, including much bluster of his own, businessman and television personality Kevin O’Leary launched a campaign in late January — a day after the anglophone missed an all-French debate in Quebec City.

O’Leary’s formal entry sent other campaigns spinning. He came in with name recognition, senior people and big fundraising capacity. Within days, he was raking in more cash, headlines and polling support than his opponents. And most candidates pivoted to go on the immediate attack, significantly changing the race’s dynamic.

CAMPAIGNS ALLEGE VOTER REGISTRATION FRAUD

Despite party officials going to great lengths to pre-empt any funny business in voter registration, several campaigns caught wind of something fishy in the lead-up to a sign-up deadline in March.

At least three campaigns complained to the party about allegations ground organizers were signing up members of specific ethnic communities to the party without their knowledge.

After investigating, the party expelled almost 1,400 memberships that had been bought in bulk with prepaid credit cards.

Sources from multiple campaigns said the allegations centred on specific Maxime Bernier organizers. After Kevin O’Leary raised a public alarm about vote-rigging, the Bernier camp leaked an affidavit alleging wrongdoing by an O’Leary organizer. The party did not find any specific campaigns accountable for the memberships it expelled.

O’LEARY DROPS OUT TO ENDORSE BERNIER

Ballots had already been mailed out. Maxime Bernier and Kevin O’Leary were in a dead heat for first place in polling and fundraising. But everything changed April 26.

In a move that surprised some who felt O’Leary had a real chance to win, but not others, who suggested he never wanted the job in the first place, Mr. Wonderful decided to drop out of the race and endorse his main rival.

Although his name is still on Conservative leadership ballots, O’Leary’s absence from the race helped secure a major front-running lead for Bernier and, on the other hand, hope for other candidates from whom O’Leary had stolen thunder.