Response to new Tory leader will test Liberals’ ‘sunny ways’
“Not a leader.” “He didn’t come back for you.” “He’s in way over his head.”
If any of these ancient political tag lines still register, it’s because the Conservative party spent significant sums searing them into your brain.
For those with impregnable (or apolitical) memories, every time the then-opposition Liberals would pick a new leader to oppose Stephen Harper, the Tory attack machine would spring to life and unleash an unrelenting ad campaign to tar and feather said leader.
Hence Stéphane Dion went from respected environment minister to a man who couldn’t organize a two-car parade; Michael Ignatieff morphed from Harvard intellectual to ivory-tower arriviste; and Justin Trudeau turned from too green to be prime minister to, um, prime minister.
Fine, the last one didn’t work, but as Mr. Dion and Mr. Ignatieff can attest, a well-timed (and placed) ad strike can neuter an opposition leadership. Those two never did get out from under their Tory monikers.
Why did the Tories play rough? Because you never get a second chance to make a first impression, and the Conservatives knew they could use their superior financial resources to brand the new Liberal leader before those men could brand themselves.
Which brings us to this weekend’s Conservative leadership election, and what, if any, Liberal effort will be expended to return the favour. Maxime Bernier, or whoever pips him down ballot to fill the Ambrose-shaped hole at the head of the Conservative party, should be alive to the possibility of a Liberal offensive.
A glance at the Twitter feed of Trudeau aide Gerry Butts hints the Liberals are at least thinking about war; Butts recently posted a Huffington Post profile of front-runner Bernier and added the following: “So Max Bernier voted to break up the country. Now he wants to lead it.”
The spear on Bernier’s 1995 referendum “oui” vote is weak beer, and probably nothing, other than a reminder there is no statute of limitations on source material for political attacks. If there exists a video of sevenyear-old Kellie Leitch asking a brown kid why their lunch smells funny from 40 years ago, it will be used in the event of a Leitch victory.
Ignore the tut-tutting of the press about such attacks being “gutter” politics. Exploring lines of attack isn’t mean, it’s good political hygiene. If the Internet has taught us anything, it’s that everything will eventually surface. You can bet the various Conservative leadership campaigns have tried their level best to dig up dirt on their colleagues.
The Liberals know better than most that no wound bleeds more than one inflicted by your own side. Just ask Team Chrétien about Team Martin. And it was Ignatieff who goaded Dion into his eventual Tory tag line by saying the Liberals “didn’t get it done” on the environment, to which Dion eventually whined “do you think it’s easy to make priorities?” In that moment, “not a leader” was born.
While there haven’t been any similarly devastating blue-on-blue attacks in the contest to replace Stephen Harper (the now-departed Kevin O’Leary aside), Liberals will have been watching closely as Conservative candidates snipe at each other and bid up their base with increasingly arch policy proposals. There is more than enough material for a good attack campaign.
That’s why the Tories should count themselves lucky Justin Trudeau promised to do politics “differently.” Sunny ways, my friends, sunny ways.
Indeed, Trudeau was quick to denounce the Tories’ campaign against him in 2013.
“I think what I’m seeing across the country,” Trudeau said at the time, “is a shift in people’s willingness to be made cynical about politics and politicians. What I see is a lot of people responding to my message of hope and hard work.”
Attack ads certainly aren’t hope, even if they are hard work. So, no TV campaign then. Nor should we expect Trudeau to finesse his revulsion by avoiding television in favour of pounding the new Tory leader on Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat and Twitter. An attack is an attack, no matter the medium on which it is messaged.
No, on the subject of attacks, Trudeau’s word is bond. Like it was on electoral reform. And modest deficits. And no omnibus bills. On second thought ... The Liberals certainly haven’t been mining Chinese businessmen for cash in private settings out of virtue. There are resources to be deployed should the decision be taken to spear the new leader of the opposition.
But don’t expect the Tories to take it lying down. They’ve a war chest of their own, and the experience that comes with having written the rules of attack.
Whoever it might be, the new leader will be ready to counter any blow, and make their own first impression, free of Liberal interference.
Their chances in 2019 might well depend on it.