2018 prediction sees Wynne retiring in infamy

This all began in a conversation during a haircut. “So what do you think will happen in the next provincial election?” I was asked.

I’ve been mulling variations of this question for many months as I watch the squiggles and turns of Ontario’s Liberal government’s effort to cling to power for another painful duration.

In the past two provincial elections I had calculated that a large portion of voters would opt to vote for the lesser evil of three options: the Liberals-you-know-but-may-not-trust versus Conservatives-with-foot-in-mouth leaders versus the-NDP-of-perpetually-damned-to-hellfame (except in Windsor-Essex County).

Given an inherent reluctance of voters to strike forth into the unknown, the Liberals were certain to win.

However, so much has transpired and so much formal change will affect 2018’s election that it is hard to foresee the outcome.

First, there will be 15 seats added to reflect the population change. That brings the total number in the legislative to 122. Most new seats are urban — in the Greater Toronto Area, Ottawa, Kitchener-Waterloo, Barrie and Hamilton. Liberals tend to do well in urban-suburban ridings. Conservatives still tend to appeal to rural voters.

Second, as of January this year, corporations and unions can no longer directly fund political parties. Only individuals can donate to Ontario parties and candidates to a maximum of $3,600 a year — down from $23,275 under the old rules.

Third, all parties which received at least two per cent of popular vote in the 2014 election will now receive annual allowances of $2.71 per vote. That gives the Liberals $5 million, the Progressive Conservatives $4 million, the NDP $3 million and the Greens $630,000.

Fourth, there are now spending limits on interest groups, such as last election’s union-funded Working Families Coalition. It unleashed attack ads aimed at the PCs in the last four elections. Special interest groups will be limited to spending $600,000 in the six months prior to the campaign and $100,000 during the campaign.

In 2014, Working Families spent $2.5 million, the Ontario English Catholic Teachers Association spent $2.2 million and the Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario spent $1.3 million.

Finally, the election date of June 7 is fixed, although the premier could call an election earlier should she dare to do so. A fixed election date changes the dynamics of the pre-election period. Hence, we might expect incumbent Liberals to waft assorted new policies and promises before our eyes well in advance. Notice, for example, the recent assortment of Ontario government “does good things” ads. What do I think will happen June 7? Clearly, Premier Kathleen Wynne would probably prefer to retire, along with several of her ministers, well in advance of June 2018. It is too late for a Liberal leadership change, so she needs to hang in to the bitter end.

PC Leader Patrick Brown has so far been about as inspiring as a stale doughnut. The PCs may have alternate policies on key issues, such as electricity rates and green energy, but those policy alternatives are of the ilk, “Elect us and we’ll do something but we’re not sure what.” And with a well-heeled war chest many PCs are so frothing at the expectation of a Premier Brown that they are viciously fighting each other in several nomination meetings.

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath should have stepped down after the last election when her party came in third. Now she must lead the party again with no serious expectation of forming a government and with only a remote hint of affordable policy alternatives.

And thus here is the prediction: the Progressive Conservatives will form a minority government; the NDP will become the official Opposition; and Liberals will wipe away tears as they come in third, and Wynne will follow the lead of Dalton McGinty and retire in infamy.

Too late for a ... leadership change ... (Wynne) needs to hang in to the bitter end.