Analyst forecasts end of the road for Caravan
Shrinking market clouds future of the Windsor-made minivan
The end is near for the stalwart, utilitarian Dodge Grand Caravan, says a U.S. auto analyst.
Production of the still popular and affordable Windsor-made minivan is scheduled to cease at the end of 2019, when it will likely be replaced by a scaled-down version of the sleek Chrysler Pacifica or a new crossover vehicle, says Sam Fiorani, vice-president of global vehicle forecasting with AutoForecast Solutions.
“It’s ancient. It’s based on old architecture,” Fiorani said Tuesday.
He believes Fiat Chrysler Automobiles will replace it with a cheaper Pacifica in the spring of 2020 or a new crossover model. The replacement will continue to be manufactured in Windsor since it will share much of the Pacifica’s platform, Fiorani said.
Fiat Chrysler, Honda and Toyota are the only automakers still producing minivans, but their popularity continues to decline — primarily due to the stigma of being a family carrier, he said.
“We are seeing the bottom of the minivan market,” Fiorani said. “There is a reason for its popularity, but there is also a stigma that comes with it that says, ‘I have children.’ ”
Families increasingly are turning to crossover-style vehicles and that’s why Fiat Chrysler will replace the Caravan, he said.
“There is always a risk when you replace a popular model. Currently, a lot of (the Caravan’s) popularity is on price,” Fiorani said. “The company can easily bring out a lower-content model, bring the price down, but it likely won’t go for as low as the Grand Caravan now.”
An FCA Canada spokeswoman said the automaker does not comment on rumours or speculation about its models.
“There has been nothing said about the end of the Grand Caravan and we are continuing to produce it,” said LouAnn Gosselin, head of communications for FCA Canada.
There were 308,000 units combined of the Pacifica and Grand Caravan manufactured at the Windsor Assembly Plant in 2016, she said.
“We invented the minivan 30 years ago and it continues to be the minivan sales leader to this day,” Gosselin said. “We are 70 per cent of the sales in the minivan market in this country. We are proud of our workforce continuing to build such an award-winning product.”
Dennis DesRosiers, a Windsorborn auto-industry analyst, said Tuesday he hasn’t heard any definitive word, but the end of the Caravan “makes sense” given the decline of the minivan sector.
“They were down to 100,000 sold last year, less than five per cent of the market,” he said. When minivans were hot sellers in the late 1990s, they owned 16.7 per cent of the market.
Meanwhile, crossover vehicle sales have skyrocketed, climbing from five per cent in 1990 to nearly 40 per cent last year.
“There is a lot more variability with a crossover,” DesRosiers said. “There are many choices in terms of size and style. With a minivan there is only luxury — so there is little choice. (Crossovers) are also more car-like in driving.”
Discontinuing the Caravan could put the Pacifica in jeopardy, he said.
“You can’t make money with no volume. With the drop in volume (without the Caravan), they might be hard-pressed to keep the Pacifica going.”
However, it could open a gateway to the future for the Windsor Assembly Plant, DesRosiers said.
“Crossovers are successful and really hot. Windsor has been late to the game. It’s possible you will have an entirely new platform in that operation. A crossover or multi-purpose vehicle has more upside than a minivan. It would be good news if it were to happen.”
Unifor Local 444, which represents unionized workers at the Windsor plant, has received no news about the future of the Caravan or plans for its replacement, said president James Stewart.
“We’re already starting to build a lower-line Pacifica, but nothing about a new product or end of the Caravan,” he said.
Any new product, whether it’s a replacement for the Caravan or new investment in the Windsor Assembly Plant, would always be regarded as “good news for the workforce,” Stewart said.
“The Pacifica is a great product and the Caravan has been a stalwart and is still a great product,” he said.
“If they start talking about losing that product there will be some heartache, but then you also will be talking about a new product as a replacement.”
If the end is near for the Caravan, it will be hard to adequately acknowledge what it has done for the company and the community, Stewart said.
“When Chrysler started building this in the 1980s, nobody could have guessed 30 years later we would still be building a variation of the product,” he said. “Not only has it been a success story for the company, but the whole city. When you talk about the suppliers and all the employees, it truly has maintained this community economically.”
Not only has it been a success story for the company, but the whole city. ... it truly has maintained this community economically.