MARNER WORTH MATTHEWS MONEY?
Numbers suggest young Maple Leafs forwards might demand similar contracts
William Nylander or Auston Matthews?
When it eventually comes time to negotiate a new contract for Mitch Marner, who will be used as a comparable?
At this time last year, the answer would have been Nylander after he and Marner finished with identical 61-point rookie seasons. That’s no longer the case this year.
Marner, who headed into Wednesday night’s game with a team-leading 65 points in 76 games, has three more goals and 11 more points than Nylander. In a two-year span, his 126 points in 153 games (0.82 points per game) is closer to Matthews’ 122 points in 138 games (0.88) than it is Nylander’s 115 points in 157 games (0.73).
As a centre, Matthews plays a more valuable position than Marner and is arguably a more complete player. He also has far more goals (69 compared to Marner’s 39), more evenstrength points (93 compared to Marner’s 79) and a far better plus-minus (plus-22 compared to Marner’s minus-3).
Then again, Chicago’s Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane are two completely different players who don’t play the same position. And they received identical eight-year US$84-million contracts in 2015-16.
Also keep in mind that while Matthews and Nylander have played on a top line together for two seasons, Marner spent the first few months of this season inside coach Mike Babcock’s doghouse, averaging fourth-line minutes alongside Matt Martin and Dominic Moore.
It wasn’t until the all-star break, when Marner was elevated to a line with Nazem Kadri and Patrick Marleau, that the 20-year-old burst out offensively. Since then, he ranks just outside the top 10 in scoring with 13 goals and 31 points in 25 games. And he’s doing it while averaging two less minutes per night than Matthews. “Naz and Patty have been fun to play with, it’s been great,” said Marner, who admitted the start to the season weighed on his confidence. “You can get frustrated pretty quickly. I think that’s the thing I was doing. I was getting frustrated.”
First, the Leafs have to re-sign Nylander, whose entry-level contract expires on July 1. That won’t come cheap. Expect the 21-year-old to use Boston’s David Pastrnak (six years, $40 million) as a comparable. The following year, it gets even more difficult with Matthews and Marner both needing new contracts. For Matthews, the number probably lies somewhere between Connor McDavid’s eight-year, $100-million contract and Jack Eichel’s eight-year, $80-million deal. And as long as Marner continues to produce at an elite level, there isn’t a reason why he shouldn’t be demanding the same.
It’s the time of year when teams start signing players out of U.S. colleges for a two-week tryout. But while the Buffalo Sabres (Casey Mittelstadt) and the Chicago Blackhawks (Dylan Sikura) have nothing to lose in giving up a roster spot to a kid straight out of college, it’s a different scenario for the ninth-place Florida Panthers, who expect 20-year-old Henrik Borgstrom to make his NHL debut Thursday.
“We feel that he’s ready to be a good pro — not just a pro,” head coach Bob Boughner said of the first-round pick in 2016, who had 52 points in 40 games for the University of Denver.
Florida’s Aaron Ekblad is tied for second among defencemen with 15 goals. He said a big reason for his offensive success this season occurred in the summer, when he sought out the skills/ skating coach who has been working with Connor McDavid, Taylor Hall and Mathew Barzal. Ekblad, who was one of the few defencemen at the Power Edge Pro camp, not only improved his speed, footwork and stickhandling, but also learned how to counter some of the deceptiontype techniques the top forwards use.
No GM has a perfect trade record, but Peter Chiarelli’s looks particularly bad right now. Three of the NHL’s top 10 scorers (Blake Wheeler, Phil Kessel and Taylor Hall) are players he traded during his time in Boston and Edmonton, while Tyler Seguin is ranked 22nd and Islanders forward Jordan Eberle has 22 more points than the Oilers’ Ryan Strome. This might be a bad time to consider moving Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.