Winner in race to replace Conyers could surprise

On paper, Rashida Tlaib shouldn’t even be a factor in the Democratic primary to replace John Conyers in Congress. The district consists of about half of Detroit and a collection of largely working-class Wayne County suburbs. Slightly more than half of the population is black; most of the rest are blue-collar white folks, many of whom used to work in steel mills or other gritty manufacturing jobs.

Tlaib is a proud Muslim woman, with a winning personality, a divorced 41-year-old mom of two young sons, a Detroit native whose parents were refugees from Palestine.

There are few Muslims or Palestinians in this hardscrabble district, ranked by the Almanac of American Politics as the third poorest in the nation.

Yet she thinks she may be the first Muslim woman to serve in Congress.

“I’m also as American as they come,” she told me in a quirky Detroit coffee shop called Anthology as a table of enthusiastic non-Muslims nodded approval.

Ten years ago, she became the first Muslim woman elected to the legislature, easily winning a crowded Democratic primary. Four years later, facing a single opponent, she won with 85 per cent.

During her time in the legislature, Tlaib was all about serving those who lived in her district, successfully pushing the Marathon Corporation to remove piles of petcoke that blew dust across residents’ homes and yards.

She also won funding for a neighbourhood service centre that provided an array of programs to low-income families.

But when asked her biggest reason for wanting to go to Congress, she doesn’t hesitate: “I think this (election) is going to be about electing the jury that will impeach him — and I would make a heck of a juror!” (No need to ask who she meant.)

Yet does she have a prayer of winning ? Matched against a single African-American opponent, maybe not. Four years ago, forced by term limits to leave the state house of representatives, she took on incumbent State Sen. Virgil Smith in a Democratic primary.

Smith was an intellectual lightweight who later was forced to resign after he assaulted his former wife.

But he still managed to defeat Tlaib, a lawyer who then went to work for Detroit’s Sugar Law Center, which works on behalf of the city’s downtrodden.

Then U.S. Rep. John Conyers, who had been in office since 1964, resigned last Dec. 5 after a spate of sexual harassment allegations. Now, there are an overwhelming number of Democrats who want to succeed him. The district is different from most.

First, it is the only one in the state that falls entirely within a single county (Wayne). It is also one where the only election that matters is the Aug. 7 Democratic primary.

This district was designed to be as solidly Democratic as they come, and was also, under the Voting Rights Act, designed to be one of two districts with an African-American majority.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean electing a black congressman, and here’s why: At least 10 candidates may be on the primary ballot. Detroit city council president Brenda Jones may be the front-runner, but the AfricanAmerican community is anything but united. There are two candidates named Conyers — State Sen. Ian, the congressman’s grandnephew, and the congressman’s 28-year-old son, John III, plus several many others, including another former state representative, Shanelle Jackson, who might be considered the candidate of controversial Ambassador Bridge owner Matty Moroun, for whom she now works.

William Wild, the mayor of Westland, jumped into the race, perhaps on the shrewd theory that in a crowded field he can win by gathering most of the voters who are white.

Tlaib, on the other hand, thinks she can win, based on her track record of working for the people.

And Rashida Tlaib, the oldest of 14 children who grew up partly on welfare, has a history of doing things nobody thought she could. I would not want to bet against her doing it again.