PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES IN WINDSOR?
One hour, three blocks, permission for 13 campaign signs.
It was a fruitful canvass for a Conservative in Windsor. Adam Ibrahim, the Progressive Conservative candidate in Windsor West in the June 7 provincial election, canvassed St. Clair Avenue in South Windsor last week with his brother Tarek and two volunteers.
It’s not a Conservative neighbourhood.
“Let’s be honest. There are no typically PC areas,” laughed Tarek, who is managing his brother’s campaign.
It’s diverse — ethnically, economically and politically.
But there were some surprisingly common responses. “We need a change,” said Mark Askew, a 60-year-old business consultant.
“I always think it’s really healthy every eight or 10 years to see a change in government. “Absolutely you have my support,” he told Ibrahim.
He agreed to have his photo taken with him.
“I’m very much in favour of anyone who’s anti-Liberal,” said John Sgabellone, a 50-year-old auto dealership manager, citing Liberal scandals. “Write me down.”
He agreed to a lawn sign. Ayman Youseff, a 43-year-old who works for an Internet provider, cited the skyrocketing cost of electricity.
What about the NDP? “Enough with the orange,” said Youssef. “We’re not on the map,” he said, referring to the fact that all six local MPPs and MPs are New Democrats, but neither senior government is NDP. “We need to think of the next generation in terms of debt,” said Askew, referring to Premier Kathleen Wynne’s budget, which includes a $6.7-billion deficit that prompted Moody’s Investor Services to downgrade the province’s financial outlook from stable to negative. “The PCs will address that better than the NDP.”
Youseff likes PC Leader Doug Ford’s promise to cut corporate taxes, even though they’re already low. And, with three school-age children, he likes Ford’s promise to review Ontario’s new sex education curriculum.
“It went too far,” he said. What really bugs Sgabellone is what he perceives as the Liberals’ attitude: “What I think is best — not what people want.” Said Youseff, “Doug Ford — he’s different. He’s out of the box.”
That’s Windsor’s populist streak, cited in an EKOS Research Associates poll for Canadian Press. The poll concluded that Windsor could be the Canadian city most receptive to the populism that elected U.S President Donald Trump and led to Britain voting to leave the European Union. There’s an anti-authoritarian streak, a don’t-tell-me-whatto-do attitude in working-class Windsor, say longtime political observers. While some argue we need a government member, others are just as likely to say, “Screw you.” When the rest of Ontario and Canada voted Liberal in the last provincial and federal elections, we voted NDP. We even dumped provincial cabinet minister Teresa Piruzza in Windsor West. Clinging to the tip of Ontario, surrounded by the U.S., we’re an “outlier,” said observer Paul Synnott. You can’t always predict what will happen in Windsor based on what’s happening elsewhere in Ontario and Canada.
And we think we’re hard done by — even when we’re not. “I agree, Windsor has been neglected,” said voter Rana Sadik, a 42-year-old mother, even though senior governments have poured billions of dollars into Windsor over the last 15 years. Windsor’s populism, fuelled by its labour roots, has always veered left, electing the NDP. Being a Conservative candidate here often meant being a placeholder. But this time, it might not.
Ford, an Etobicoke businessman, former Toronto councillor and brother of former Toronto mayor Rob Ford, is a rule-breaker, like Windsor. He doesn’t really do policy. His campaign is simple. He bashes elites — even though he’s worth millions — and it resonates with frustrated voters.
And while Windsor’s economy appears to be booming, with unemployment at 5.2 per cent — lower than the provincial and national averages — many people remain disenfranchised. A lot of high-paying manufacturing jobs have disappeared. Household income dropped 6.4 per cent between 2005 and 2015, the biggest decline of any large city. Windsor also has the highest rate of children living in low-income households — 24 per cent.
Our labour participation rate has dropped 6.8 per cent, to 60.4 per cent, tied for lowest in Ontario. Male participation in the labour force has plummeted 10.7 per cent since 2002. Many who could work are not — they aren’t even looking for a job. Auto plants are heading south, and autonomous vehicles are being developed elsewhere. We lack significant economic diversification. Few believe highspeed rail will reach here. It all adds up to uncertainty.
If Ford, whose support topped 42 per cent last week on CBC’s Poll Tracker, an aggregate of publicly available polls, sweeps Ontario, anything could happen here.
And Ibrahim, a 31-year-old sales and marketing director at his family’s bottled water and water purification company, isn’t acting like a placeholder. He was an adviser to former party leader Patrick Brown and canvassed for the PCs in five byelections, including upset wins over the Liberals in Scarborough-Rouge River and Sault Ste. Marie.
He admits he was “a little scared” of the NDP’s dominance here. He knows he’s working “from down up.” But, he said, “We’re going hard. We’re making sure people know we’re out there.”
He cites the party’s byelection upsets and says, “that’s why I don’t believe in numbers. I believe in hard work.”
He says he and his team have either called or knocked on the doors of 25,000 households and businesses. His Facebook page shows him at flag raising ceremonies, on picket lines, even donating blood. They have three billboards up and more coming next month, when the writ drops. He’s pushing buttons like high energy costs, “hallway health care” and, with his party ahead, a voice at the table. People are noticing.
“He comes across as refreshing,” said Askew.
Not everyone is convinced. “Let’s hope he’s not like his brother,” Margaret Green quipped about Ford, referring to Rob Ford’s hard-drinking, cracksmoking ways.
Ford doesn’t have a platform, said her husband David. “He’s not saying how much money he’s going to put toward education, health care.” They’re undecided, they said. Windsor West hasn’t elected a Conservative since Ivan Thrasher in the former Windsor-Sandwich in 1967. He lasted one term. But incumbent Lisa Gretzky, who upset Piruzza, is considered the weakest local MPP. And Ibrahim is getting people to think about him and his party.
“We usually vote Liberal or NDP,” one homeowner said. But he accepted Ibrahim’s pamphlet. “We’ll look at it,” he said. Mohammad Latif is running for the PCs in Windsor-Tecumseh. Incumbent Percy Hatfield is a popular and effective MPP. And while Conservative Denise Ghanam won 34 per cent of the vote in that federal riding in 2011, Latif hasn’t lived in the city full time since 2001. He lives and works in Mississauga and returns on weekends. Former Kingsville councillor Chris Lewis, a former volunteer firefighter who ran for mayor in 2010, is running for the party in Essex. Incumbent Taras Natyshak is another popular, effective MPP. Essex hasn’t elected a Conservative since William Murdoch in 1963, when the riding was Essex South. But rural ridings are more likely to go Conservative. And Conservative Jeff Watson held the federal riding for four terms until 2015.
While some argue we need a government member, others are just as likely to say, “Screw you.”