PLAYOFF PROBLEMS FIND THE RAPTORS ON FAMILIAR ROAD
Toronto has been shadow of itself away from Air Canada Centre during Casey era
Perhaps the Toronto Raptors could bring Drake with them this time.
With the team heading back to Capital One Arena Friday for Game 6 of their series with the Washington Wizards, having the global ambassador on hand to cheer courtside and to awkwardly intercept players on their way to the bench couldn’t hurt. After all, it’s not like anyone on the team can explain why the team has stumbled so much on the road in this series. “We’ve been pretty good on the road,” coach Dwane Casey said after the Raptors rode a late surge and a buoyant Air Canada Centre crowd to overcome a late deficit Wednesday en route to a 108-98 win and a 3-2 edge in the first-round series. “The way we played in Washington those two games, I felt like (it) was uncharacteristic. We hadn’t played frenetic on the road in that style, turning the ball over like we did without poise or purpose or whatever.”
Casey’s contention the Raptors have generally been good away from home is supported by much evidence. There were the 25 road wins this season, a team record, but the Raptors also had a net rating of 4.8 points per 100 possessions away from home, a figure that put them third in the NBA behind wonder teams Houston and Golden State. That consistency has deserted them in Washington. While the Raptors have shot 50 per cent from the field and 44 per cent from three-point range at the Air Canada Centre, those numbers dipped to 44 per cent and 41 per cent in Washington. They have also averaged more rebounds, more assists and fewer turnovers at home. The failure on the road has been pretty comprehensive.
So what gives? Some of this is just basketball. Home court matters in the NBA much more than it does in some sports and even more so in the playoffs. Heading into Thursday’s games, home teams had a record of 29-10 in this post-season and in two of the four East series, home teams were a perfect 10-0. There are many theories for why the site of a game has such a pronounced effect on outcomes in the NBA, from biased officiating to the comforts of home to the idea that there is evolutionary psychology going on that sees players instinctively protecting their home turf. Seriously, there have been studies about that. It’s also true that basketball is less susceptible to the random statistical noise of, say, hockey, where a weird bounce of a puck or a fortunate post can swing a game.
But even with those trends, the Raptors have been a particularly bleak playoff team on the road. Colleague Ryan Wolstat did the math Wednesday and in the Casey era, Toronto has been just 5-17 (.227) on the road. With their win Wednesday, the Raptors are 15-9 (.625) at home over the same period. That’s not a world-beating percentage on home court, but the Raptors have struggled just a touch in the playoffs. You may have heard something about that. Casey has been somewhat mystified by the weak road performances in this series, specifically by the way some of his normally confident players have wilted in unfriendly confines. The Wizards’ Kelly Oubre Jr., while admitting he has played better at home, told the Washington Post after Game 6 that. “The next game is a different story. We’re back at home. Just like Delon (Wright) doesn’t play well anywhere else, you know, other than at home.”
I mean, he’s not wrong. Wright, the backup point guard for Toronto with Fred VanVleet nursing a bum shoulder, has scored about 16 points per game at home, many of those back-breaking three-pointers, and just 6.5 points per game in Washington. Casey has maintained that several of his guys — not just Wright — passed up open shots in the road losses, another argument borne out by the evidence. The Raptors have attempted seven more three-pointers on average at home than on the road in this series, which has led to four more made threes. That’s a significant difference. In their Game 4 loss, the Raptors were only a couple of made threes away from putting the game close to out of reach in the first half.
The team talked between games 4 and 5 about “letting it fly” and they are still using that mantra.
“We’ve got to go out there and play our game,” Kyle Lowry said after the Game 5 win. “We’ve got to take our attitude of let them fly on the road.”
It’s not just that the Raptors need to take open shots. It’s that by doing so, it allows the whole offensive system to function smoothly. DeMar DeRozan scored in bunches in the first three quarters of Game 5, then his teammates took over. “That’s one reason why we played a certain style of basketball all year for those types of moments where he didn’t feel like he had to score and carry the load,” Casey said. “We’ve got to have that personality going into Friday night.”
It sounds so simple: play on the road like you do at home. So far, it has proven more difficult in practice.