Oil extends slump as Saudi Arabia, Russia mull output hike

Oil in New York headed for its longest run of losses in more than three months as Saudi Arabia and Russia consider raising output. Futures dropped as much as 3.1 per cent on Monday, following a four-per-cent slump Friday. Saudi Arabia and Russia have signalled they ’ll restore some of their curtailed output after OPEC and allied producers concluded they’ve succeeded in draining a global glut. The rout that started last Tuesday has wiped out all of oil’s gains in May. Futures reached a 3½-year high earlier in the month as U.S. President Donald Trump renewed sanctions on Iran and the Venezuelan crisis deepened.

“The market is now pricing in the possibility that OPEC is going to raise production,” Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago, said by phone. An 800,000 to one million barrel a day increase would “barely” offset the expected loss from Iran and Venezuela but “the market is taking that as a big increase.” West Texas Intermediate crude decreased 1.4 per cent to US$66.47 a barrel, reaching the lowest since April in its fifth consecutive decline. Trades will be booked Tuesday for settlement purposes because of the U.S. Memorial Day holiday. Total volume traded was about half the 100-day average. Brent futures for July fell US$1.13 to US$75.58 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The global benchmark crude traded at a US$8.87 premium to WTI for the same month, on course to close at the widest gap since March 2015.

Higher crude prices are starting to affect demand, Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of consultant IHS Markit Ltd., said on Friday. He was echoing concerns voiced a week earlier by the International Energy Agency, which advises major oil-consuming nations. Trump last month criticized OPEC for contributing to higher crude.

OPEC and its allies are likely to gradually hike oil output in the second half, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said at last week’s St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in Russia. He and his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak said that while curtailing the supply caps was “on the table,” no decision had been made. The group has to decide unanimously whether to adjust output, said Suhail Al Mazrouei, energy minister of the United Arab Emirates and holder of OPEC’s rotating presidency.

Saudi Arabia and Russia’s potential policy shift doesn’t materially change Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s bullish oil outlook, the bank’s analysts said, reiterating a forecast of Brent at US$82.50 in the third quarter.