FORD GOVERNMENT COULD LOOK LIKE ALMOST ANYTHING
Tough to predict how campaign promises will fare in practice, writes Chris Selley
Ontario voters rang down the curtain on 15 years of Liberal government on Thursday night by making, in many ways, the traditional choice. Over the past century, with only one not-veryfondly-remembered exception, Ontarians have installed either Tory or Liberal governments. An unusual number of voters preferred the other change on offer: the NDP finished strong, adding 19 seats at time of writing for a total of 39. But it wasn’t nearly enough. Doug Ford will be Ontario’s next premier, with a solid majority in the legislature. Ford himself is anything but a traditional choice, of course: a blunt, unpolished populist who vaguely promises to govern “for the people,” who boasts of his and his late brother Rob’s cost-cutting record at Toronto City Hall despite the chaos that surrounded it, and who promises to run the province like a business but never produced a business plan. Despite promises to release a fully costed platform, it never materialized. Ford’s victory comes after four dizzying months that saw the PC party lose its leader, then nearly tear itself apart with internal squabbling and score-settling. A remarkable number of PC candidates had — and have — dark clouds hanging over their heads. The alleged theft of private information from the 407 ETR and its use to sign up fake party members could involve two dozen candidates. A police investigation into the alleged rigging of a nomination meeting in Hamilton is ongoing. Ford himself was caught on tape apparently offering to pay for other people’s memberships on behalf of Etobicoke Centre candidate Kinga Surma. In the dying days of the campaign, Renata Ford invited voters to imagine their premier facing down his brother’s ex-wife in court in a $16.5 million lawsuit alleging (among other things) that Ford, with brother Randy, ran the family business nearly into the ground.
Polls suggest all that cost them some support. But it seems the Tory brand was strong enough to endure any misgivings people might have had about him. An Ipsos poll conducted in mid-May suggests Ontarians trust the PCs far more than the other two parties when it comes to the economy, lowering energy costs and balancing the budget. Those are huge priorities for Ontarians — all the more so for conservatives. A recent Ipsos poll found that balancing the budget and paying down debt were “top priorities” for 59 per cent and 53 per cent of PC voters, respectively. Eighty per cent of Conservative voters agreed with the statement: “I would rather the government cut spending on services than run a larger budget deficit.” Unsurprisingly, almost no one said they’d like to pay more in taxes. Ford promises families — and corporations — will pay less. Ford’s platform promises a lot of things, though. The tax cuts and war on government waste are identifiably conservative elements; scrapping the carbon tax is identifiably capital-C Conservative. But those elements all ding the treasury, and there are billions upon billions of new spending promises that could easily have been found in a Liberal or NDP platform: $3.8 billion to combat mental health issues, $5 billion for new subways plus $160 million a year to upload them, $389 million for a refundable childcare tax credit, $500 million in environmental programs. It goes on and on. It adds up to something in excess of $8 billion. Ford says he’ll squeeze $6 billion in painless “efficiencies” out of Queen’s Park’s bureaucracy, and without anyone losing their job. It’s an unlikely pledge, and it’s still at least $2 billion short. We don’t know if Ford intends to follow through on the whole platform, or if he’s even given it much thought. But if he did, according to an (admittedly rough) estimate by economist Mike Moffatt, the party people trust most to fight the deficit and cut debt would actually run bigger deficits than the Liberal or NDP platforms would produce.
So what do PC supporters expect of Ford? If the efficiencies aren’t there, if there must be cuts, what will end up on the chopping block? What will his supporters tolerate and what won’t they? It might well be easier, politically, to run those deficits instead of trying to slash them; a majority of Ontarians voted for parties that campaigned on deficit spending, and the Tory campaign didn’t even feel it necessary to propose a timeline to return to balance. But it would be entirely off-brand, both for the Tories and especially for Ford.
A few things are safe to predict. War with Ottawa over carbon pricing is one. Arm in arm with Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and potential Alberta premier Jason Kenney, that could become a central narrative of Ford’s government. It’s also safe to assume there will be sideshows and distractions — not just because Ford is a magnet for drama, but because there are so many investigations, inquiries and lawsuits waiting to be resolved.
The Tories finally have their victory. What that will look like is anyone’s guess.