High level of intrigue heading into NBA draft
Sense of unpredictability in the air with teams preparing to wheel and deal
We’re now three days away from the NBA draft, which is shaping up to be as unpredictable as any in recent memory.
Here’s a rundown of what we’re hearing about some of the most intriguing and interesting storylines heading into the league’s annual selection show:
We have made the case for why
■
Luka Doncic should be the No. 1 overall pick. If Doncic were American, with his level of production and accomplishment at age 19, he would be the undisputed top pick. Instead, he might still be on the board at No. 4 or No. 5 considering the way things are trending. That could prove to be a boon to the teams with those picks, namely the Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks. If Doncic somehow gets to fifth, he seems destined to go to Dallas. If he’s on the board for the fourth pick, things could get interesting.
Several teams further down the draft board could be interested in jumping up to get Doncic. Memphis, which has designs on again becoming a factor in the West after missing the playoffs for the first time in seven years, could turn the fourth pick into multiple pieces, particularly if that includes moving on from Chandler Parsons’ remaining two years of salary. Could the New York Knicks, for example, send Tim Hardaway Jr. and the ninth pick? Could the Los Angeles Clippers send the 12th and 13th picks with Tobias Harris? Could the Cleveland Cavaliers send George Hill and the eighth pick? Could the Charlotte Hornets send the 11th pick, Michael KiddGilchrist and Marvin Williams? Any one of those moves might pique the interest of the Grizzlies. And, if Doncic is on the board, there likely will be a lot of teams trying to get him there, assuming Memphis itself doesn’t want to take him.
Beyond Doncic, the next most
■ interesting name Thursday night will be Michael Porter Jr., who has the widest range of anyone near the top of this year’s class. He could go anywhere from Sacramento with the second pick to New York with the ninth selection.
His talent is undeniable. There’s a reason Porter was considered a top-three selection this time a year ago. But his ongoing health issues — both the back injury and subsequent surgery that knocked him out for virtually all of his lone season at Missouri, and complications from the lengthy layoff that delayed his recovery — could impact his stock.
Those issues include a cancelled workout last week because of a strained hip. Porter has the kind of skill set every team is looking for. If healthy, he would undoubtedly be at the top of the draft. And he may wind up there anyway. But as Thursday night unfolds, where Porter goes will be a big storyline that will have a domino effect on other prospects and teams. The weird thing about this draft
■ is that five of the top eight picks — and possibly as many as five of the top six — will be big men, in a league that’s rapidly moving away from such players unless they are truly elite. Meanwhile, good teams such as Philadelphia, Boston and Golden State at the back of the first round will have their choice of wing players who can immediately contribute.
Guys such as Donte DiVincenzo, Jacob Evans, Grayson Allen, Melvin Frazier and Khyri Thomas all could help playoff teams right away, which is atypical for players picked late in the first round. Meanwhile, it’s hard to sort out exactly which of the bigs at the top of the draft will be the best. Deandre Ayton will go first to Phoenix, but there are legitimate questions about his ability to pick things up defensively. Marvin Bagley was very productive at Duke, but there are questions about what position he’s going to play in the NBA. Jaren Jackson Jr. is perhaps the player best suited for the modern game, but he didn’t have the stats of Ayton or Bagley in college. Mohamed Bamba has a chance to be a Rudy Gobert-type defensive presence, and might actually develop a jump shot on offence, but there are concerns about his motor. Wendell Carter Jr. was overshadowed by Bagley at Duke, but could be a better fit at the next level. Wherever they go, all five players will be tied together for years to come, and it will be fun to see how they shake out over time. Something else to watch will be ■ teams trying to shed salary. Denver has been targeted as one possibility to move on from its pick, 14th overall, to shed the contracts of Kenneth Faried and Darrell Arthur (roughly $21 million combined) so as to offer centre Nikola Jokic a max contract as a restricted free agent this summer.
As mentioned before, Parsons could also be on the market. Perhaps the 11th pick will be in play for the Hornets, who are pushing the luxury tax and have several bad deals on their books.
Half the league is going to be in that same boat this summer, and only a few teams have the money to take on bad deals. Whether it happens Thursday or in July, expect a lot of teams to try to get rid of bad deals, one way or another.
Draft pick compensation, historically, is the best way to do so.