ROBOTS EYE LOCAL JOBS
Leamington one of work automation centres
The threat of automation to Canadian workers is real and especially serious in Southwestern Ontario, home to four of the five communities, including Leamington, most vulnerable to technology replacing people. Ingersoll, home to Cami Automotive, followed by Tillsonburg, Leamington and Woodstock, rank among the most vulnerable communities in the country to the threat of automation, said a Toronto-based institute that supports innovation and entrepreneurship. One-quarter of the labour force in Ingersoll is employed in the manufacturing sector.
“I think automation is a very big threat as well as a necessary evil to stay competitive,” said Mike Van Boekel, Unifor plant chair for Cami Automotive.
Cami workers have seen how General Motors’ investment in technology over 30 years led to the need for fewer staff, he said. Some assembly shop stations that used to need four workers have become 100 per cent robotic in new plants. “Ninety-nine per cent of all our welding is robotic and computers run it,” Van Boekel said. Rising labour costs, a lack of stable labour, increased productivity and efficiency, as well as increased global competition, are all powerful motivators within the manufacturing sector to automate. Jobs most at risk are those involving repetitive tasks such as those in the manufacturing sector that can easily be performed by robotics.
“Centres that are highly susceptible have a high concentration of manufacturing jobs and a small number of industries,” said Sean Mullin, executive director of the Brookfield Institute for Innovation and Entrepreneurship. Brookfield’s second report on the subject of automation, released last year, entitled Automation Across the Nation compiled the top 20 municipalities at risk. The report used McKinsey and Company census data to examine which towns, cities and regions are more susceptible to automation. Ingersoll and Tillsonburg rated No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, with Woodstock ranking fifth. Leamington placed fourth after Quesnel, B.C. Leamington, which has a high concentration of commercial greenhouses and ancillary industries, is among four centres that are very specialized, it says, noting that this “lack of industrial diversity could inhibit their resilience to potential shocks as a result of automation.”
Other centres at risk across Southwestern Ontario include Norfolk County at No. 11 and Stratford, an auto parts manufacturing city, at No. 14. Ingersoll, Tillsonburg and Woodstock are already feeling the effects of automation with layoffs at Cami and plant closings in other two centres. Woodstock, home to the monstrous Toyota manufacturing facility, is also susceptible.
The high rating comes for the three cities because they have workforces in which a projected 50 per cent of jobs have the potential to be automated, the report said. While numbers can vary wildly, one analysis said automation, robots and artificial intelligence have the potential to wipe out nearly 50 per cent of jobs around the globe over the next decade or two. Overall, 46 per cent of jobs in Canada — 7.7. million — have the potential to be automated, the institute said.
A common assumption is that older workers, who may lack technology and computer skills, are most at risk of being replaced by machines. But youth aged 15 to 24 are one of the most vulnerable segments of the population to automation, making up nearly 20 per cent of high-risk occupations in 2011, the institute said. Canada also has a large portion of its labour force that will be “insulated” from automation, with 28 per cent of its population working in least susceptible industries, such as health care, social assistance, as well as services in the professional, scientific and technical fields. Cities with diverse economies such as London, which has a high number of hospitals, health-care workers and post-secondary institutions, can to some degree be insulated.
Other occupations with the potential to be eliminated include accommodation and the food service industry, the retail industry due to the emergence of online shopping and self-checkouts as well as agriculture, mining and transportation and warehousing. According to the Brookfield Institute, overall employment in the five most susceptible industries represents 24 per cent of the Canadian labour force. However, because technology has the ability to provide some level of automation to all industries, no place is completely immune. And, while the potential for automation is there, it doesn’t mean it will necessarily happen. Brad Hammond, Woodstock’s economic development officer, said change to full automation will likely happen slower than predicted.
“There will likely be 1,000 microsteps to get there a little bit at a time,” he said.
In cases where workers have been displaced by automation, there is potential for jobs to be changed rather than disappear. “Employees may have a chance to upgrade their skills so they still have a role with the company,” he said.
As far as economic development goes, Woodstock’s high percentage of manufacturing jobs – 29 per cent compared to provincial average of nine percent – makes it highly susceptible to automation. “We’d like to see more advanced manufacturing jobs that don’t rely on the automotive industry, such as logistics services, like Sysco Food Services,” he said. Despite the top-heavy auto sector, there are still many more jobs in the manufacturing sectors than bodies to fill them, Hammond said. “There are thousands of jobs across southern Ontario that need the right people to fill them.” A lack of available talent is one reason employers are turning to automation, said Natalie Surridge, program director for the Oxford Workforce Development Partnership.
“Employers will be continuing to add automation into their businesses to upgrade their processes and offset the difficulty in finding talent,” she said. “The employers will have strong focus on expansion and retention of talent as the remaining baby boomers exit the labour market.”
In the future, employers will be looking for certain attributes that include strong communication and problem-solving skills, as well as the ability to work either independently or in a team. Also important is the ability to transition from one sector to another, she said.
“This demand for employees will present new opportunities to groups that have been traditionally under-represented in the workforce,” Surridge said. “(For example) persons with disabilities, new Canadians, non-post secondary and youth.”
History has proven that technological progress has been one of the most important drivers of productivity and long-term economic growth in Canada. And experts agree that those companies who embrace automation will be at a greatest advantage in the global market place. “One of the things we have said is that there are ways for Canadian companies with the right type of investment to use technology to be more productive,” Mullin said. Automation, for example, could be a way to reverse an outsourcing trend. “If they use a combination of automation and human workers they might be able to bring jobs and create new opportunities to compete back in Canada,” he said.