TRUDEAU NEEDS TO SHUFFLE HIS CABINET AND TASK WON’T BE EASY
PM’s MPs and staff need to be replaced if they don’t have any fire left in their bellies
Forget all the talk of Justin Trudeau’s changes to the facilities at Harrington Lake. Saunas and swing sets are nothing compared to another amenity Trudeau needs to change: his cabinetry.
A shakeup is overdue. As we approach the three-quarters point of Trudeau’s mandate, many of the departments central to Liberal gospel have only known a single master: Bill Morneau at Finance (middle-class tax cuts); the much-parodied Catherine McKenna at Environment (carbon tax); Jim Carr at Natural Resources (pipelines); and Jody Wilson-Raybould at Justice (legal highs).
Their records might be spotty in places — i.e. the bungled smallbusiness tax cuts and the current dog ’s breakfast on pipelines
— but these lieutenants clearly have their master’s blessing. There’s a similar benediction given for a clutch of one-host, Tier 2 posts, namely: Defence (Harjit Sajjan); Infrastructure and Communities (Amarjeet Sohi); Public Safety (Ralph Goodale); Heritage (Mélanie Joly); Innovation (Navdeep Bains); Transport (Marc Garneau); and the Treasury Board (Scott Brison). Like it or not, Trudeau has chosen to dance with the ones that brung him.
But with the next election — as the prime minister recently reminded us — “only” 500 days away, will Trudeau elect to keep the team as is, or will he shuffle the deck in search of a better hand?
How Trudeau answers this question will tell us which files he thinks are critical to his reelection. Will Trudeau stick with his best in their current jobs, or move them onto other priorities?
One file is a lock; there is scant chance of Chrystia Freeland, Trudeau’s best minister, i.e. she who is battling Donald Trump’s multiple fronts of villainy, going anywhere. But will McKenna be trusted to neutralize Rod Phillips, her counterpart in Doug Ford’s new, rabidly anti-carbon tax government? Are Wilson-Raybould’s skills required at Justice as marijuana moves from legislation to the operational growing pains of implementation? Does Carr have the chops and confidence from all parties to push the government’s latest “asset,” the Kinder Morgan pipeline, to completion? The biggest call for Trudeau, however, is Morneau, whose continued presence is the hardest to square with his record. He is the pen-holder, if not the author, of Trudeau’s bloated deficits, and the creator of much misery on the aforementioned small business tax changes. Morneau is also seemingly incapable of playing offence or defence in front of a camera, which isn’t exactly what you want from the second most important member of your team. Finding another line of ministerial work for Morneau would be a communications challenge, but it wouldn’t block progress on key Trudeau files. However badly, the budget path is set, and of all of the federal departments, finance is the one best able to chug along while bringing a new charge up to speed. And with the next budget the last before the election, the next minister will only be a stenographer for the PMO anyway.
Not that punting Morneau would be easy; indeed, it would be a step-change. While Trudeau has swapped ministers following scandal (e.g. Hunter Tootoo), and re-assigned small-fry ministers following disaster (e.g. Maryam Monsef on democratic reform; Kent Hehr on veterans), he has been loathe to move on bigger targets. And while it’s true he placed former Liberal leader Stéphane Dion on an ice floe that eventually washed ashore in Germany, Dion’s exit was the result of a clash of personalities as much as it was a difference of policy.
Another possible front is Trudeau’s inner circle of advisers. People such as Katie Telford and Gerry Butts have been indispensable for their boss, but even the most stubborn and determined of pack mules can only do the job for so long. Same goes for other key players in the PMO.
To paraphrase the philosophers of Trooper, political staff have their good times, but it’s not for a long time, and the sun definitely doesn’t shine every day.
Stephen Harper’s first chief of staff and communications directors lasted 2 1/2 years, and one of the factors affecting the timing of their departures was the possibility of another election. People have lives outside of politics and it’s hard to push to the finish line, let alone push on through that line to secure another mandate, with a team that’s spent or looking elsewhere.
That’s why Trudeau will now be sounding out his MPs and staff to see if they still have the fire in their bellies. They’ll need it, and if they don’t have it, this summer is the latest Trudeau can make a change capable of delivering an impact by October 2019.
Because the government needs to raise its game. What once looked like a cakewalk to re-election is now a tight fight. The Conservatives have been above, equal, and slightly below Trudeau in recent polling. Trudeau won’t keep his position without his A-Team in place. Andrew MacDougall is a Londonbased communications consultant and ex-director of communications to former prime minister Stephen Harper.
Will Trudeau stick with his best in their current jobs, or move them onto other priorities?