Slightly warmer winter predicted thanks to El Nino
Thanks to El Nino it’s likely to be a slightly milder winter in the coming months in comparison to the never-ending cold spell of the previous one that dragged well into the spring months, says a senior climatologist with Environment Canada.
“There is always some uncertainty, but my sense is it will not be as cold, as snowy or as long as last year,” said longtime weather expert David Phillips, originally from Windsor.
The prolonged winters of the last two years were due to La Nina, he said. The weather pattern is associated with cooler than average sea surface temperatures predominately in the Pacific Ocean, which brings cooler weather in our direction. “This will be an El Nino year,” Phillips said. “It means milder than normal. Winter tends to be a long season in Windsor, so many people may be happier this year when we get to cheat the weather a bit.”
But it’s showing like it will be a “moderate” form of the La Nina weather pattern, he said.
“What that means is (warmth in the winter) won’t be with us every day, week after week,” Phillips said. “But it’s a statistical forecast where we say warmer than normal. There will still be moments when you wish you were somewhere else. “It’s still a little bit uncertain. It’s leaning to milder than normal. You can probably bet a loonie or two on this, but I would not wager the family farm.”
For December, January and February, the overall average temperature in Windsor for those three months in mid-afternoon would be 0 C, while the nighttime lows on average are about -4C, Phillips said.
The average winter snowfall for the local area is 129 centimetres. Last winter, there was a total of 154 cm of snow in the Windsor area. The only month last winter in Windsor where average temperatures reached normal was February, Phillips said. Every other month was at least one degree Celsius or more colder on average “From Halloween until the end of April, you were seeing snow or freezing rain,” Phillips said. “It was not warming up. This year, you won’t see that.
“You will see some cold times for snowmobiling, a bit of ice fishing. But there will be melting periods in January and February with March feeling more springlike this year. My sense is that is how winter will play out.”