SCHEER NEEDS TRUMP RETURNED TO SENDER
Black Friday’s madness is here and Justin Trudeau is undoubtedly busy shopping for his best mate, Donald Trump. It’s a tricky one, even for an Amazon algorithm. What do you get the man who’s consigning Andrew Scheer to second place? Whatever Trudeau chooses, he should spend big to keep Trump sour. The more Trump throws his toys out of the pram, soils convention, and acts against Canada’s interests, the more he acts in Trudeau’s.
If Trump keeps keeping on, Scheer can forget the keys to not-24 Sussex.
Don’t think Trump has been good for Trudeau?
How about Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Accord? Renders it useless in practical terms, but loads up Trudeau’s rhetorical emissions in favour of climate multilateralism. The Liberal carbon tax is now cloaked in world-saving robes.
The president’s constant praising of nationalism? A natural response to 30 years of disappointment with globalization to some communities, but a shock to the majority view of a country like Canada that has relied on the rules-based order to punch above its weight. Trump’s even-handedness with dodgy white nationalists? An acidic byproduct of “Make America Great Again”-ism, one that provides a tart taste to some of Canada’s most ardent anti-Trudeauists. Even worse, Maxime Bernier’s new project has made these votes biddable instead of quietly bankable. The steel and aluminum tariffs? They might be a blight on our joint relationship, but they are solid gold with which to stiffen Trudeau’s middle finger back. And, apparently, his selfie stick, too.
There will be no photo taken of the two men together celebrating Chrystia Freeland’s miracle act of USMCA negotiating prowess at next week’s G-20 meeting. Trudeau can only hope Trump takes the bait and chokes out another round of Twitter rage. Anything over four tweets will probably send Trudeau over the magical 40 per cent level of support. And three years into an unimpressive mandate that’s a stellar place to be.
Of course, the race would be more competitive if Scheer would stop aiming at his own two feet.
While I’m sure the Conservative leader has a series of principled points to make on subsidiarity and how it relates to the United Kingdom’s relationship with the European Union, most Canadians having a butcher’s hook this way about Brexit now do so with a mix of fascination and horror. But mostly horror. To most Canadians who don’t already support the Tories, Brexit is an act of vandalism fronted by the raffish Nigel Farage, current Fox News contributor and confidant of one Donald J. Trump.
If Scheer thinks these are selling points with the Canadian electorate, I have an ill-considered referendum to sell him at whatever lower rate the pound is now trading.
The point being, Andrew Scheer might not be immune to the world, but he is absolutely in charge of his unforced errors. From here until October 2019 he needs to be perfect, so perfectly has Trump limited his room to manoeuvre (while at the same time expanding Trudeau’s). Every tweet from CPC HQ has to be perfect. Every question from Conservative Members in the House. Every interview given on every platform. All with perfect tone. In this perfect world, special counsel Robert Mueller would also swoop in to remove the president from Scheer’s (and everyone’s) orbit, but this isn’t a perfect world.
Even if Mueller has Trump dead to rights on micturating hookers, paid-off porn stars and Russian-bankrolled real estate, this president won’t go quietly. Nor would his supporters let their man go quietly. There will be no controlled explosion to clear Trump’s rubble.
And so it goes back to Scheer doing the work, not trying to light a blaze he can’t control. Inflicting wounds on Trudeau on substance is the best route to keeping the Canadian MAGA crowd on side, while expanding his support among the unsure. The more Scheer slips, however, the more the ultras will call for harsher measures. Fortunately, the opposition Scheer leads is doing some good work at the moment. Despite Trudeau dipping into the partisan well to brand the Tories “ambulance chasers,” they scored a significant win on the use of healing lodges for savage killers like Terri-Lynne McClintic.
They also notched up a victory on personal privacy by whipping up a furor over Statistics Canada’s use of people’s banking data. Even better for the Tories, the government response to both issues demonstrated a tone deafness wrought by an inflated sense of virtue and invulnerability. There are other, similar buttons to press at home provided clatter from abroad is ignored. All the more reason, then, for Trudeau to order up a copy of Bob Woodward and James Comey’s books and ship them to the White House. Scheer might need Trump returned to sender, but Trudeau needs the president to keep delivering explosions. Andrew MacDougall is a London-based communications consultant and ex-director of communications to former prime minister Stephen Harper.
Andrew Scheer might not be immune to the world, but he is absolutely in charge of his unforced errors. From here until October 2019 he needs to be perfect.