High water levels worry conservation authority
With area lake levels well above normal and ice piling up on shorelines, concerns are escalating about possible major flooding and shoreline erosion this spring, according to the Essex Region Conservation Authority. With high winds kicking up this week, a large amount of precipitation and high water levels, ERCA on Wednesday issued an advisory that lake ice may be pushed onshore with waves exacerbating already icy conditions, primarily along the Lake Erie shoreline. “The forecast for wind speed is just below the threshold for flooding, but that wind and open nature of channel areas will allow for ice floes to move on land,” said Tim Byrne, ERCA’s director of watershed management.
“What we are seeing (with water levels) is unusual for Lake Erie for this time of year. If enough broken ice accumulates it will come on shore, especially where there are lower-lying breakwalls.” Among areas at greatest risk are the Lake Erie shoreline between the east area of Essex to Point Pelee, plus the western portion of Pelee Island. Residents in those areas with anything of value on their property should consider moving the items to another location, Byrne said. “Especially if you are in close proximity to low-lying breakwalls, I would consider moving it,” he said. “Ice does not stop, and anything in its way will get bulldozed over.”
Given the wet winter to date, Byrne also expressed concerns Wednesday for how area water levels across Essex County are shaping up to potentially cause trouble this spring.
Currently, Lake Superior is only two inches below its record high for February, while Lake Erie is seven inches below the record for February, according to the latest numbers from the U.S. Army Corps. of Engineers in Detroit, which tracks lake levels on the U.S. side. “This is the fourth year in a row of high lake water,” Byrne said. “Historically, in my 34 years, you normally see a year or two of a typical high point then it recedes, but for the past four years, we continue to sit at an elevated state. “The trend is showing the potential (this spring) for surpassing the record water levels in 1986 that were the all-time high. We are reviewing our assessments on how we are going to deal with it.” A chief watershed hydrologist for the U.S. army corps said Wednesday there is an expectation Lake St. Clair will remain between 18 inches and two feet above its long-term average for the next six months with much the same predicted for Lake Erie.
“We are not outside the recorded range,” said Keith Kompoltowicz. “We have been here before. But we have been above the average consistently now the last several years. People should be conscious (of flooding) as things can change quickly, especially with inshore winds.” A spokesman for the Lake Superior Board of Control, however, is not as concerned as others that lakes will reach record levels this year. The control board this month released numbers that show Lake Michigan-Huron, which includes local waterways, is currently 52 cm above average and 6 cm above last year’s beginning-of-February level.
“It’s similar conditions to last year, so it’s hard to say where we will end up over the next six months,” said Rob Caldwell, Canadian secretary for the control board.
He pointed to Canadian sixmonth forecasts for Lake Erie that show the potential this year to reach the record levels of 1987 under a worst-case weather scenario.
“There is no reason to panic quite yet, but there is no reason to stop paying attention either because the water levels remain very high,” Caldwell said.