So many questions surrounding Astros

Just how much cheating affected games might not be known for seasons to come

In the report from Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred that brought about the dismissal of Houston Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow and, so far, the managers of three teams, there’s a line that jumped out at first reading.

“At some point during the 2018 season, the Astros stopped using the replay review room to decode signs because the players no longer believed it was effective,” the report says.

Oh?

Manfred’s report leaves it there, going on to say there was no evidence the cheating scheme the Astros deployed in 2017 was used in the 2018 post-season or beyond.

So, some questions. Why would the Astros have decided their sign decoding operation was suddenly less effective? If a batter knows a change-up is coming, that wouldn’t stop being useful information.

Manfred’s report also states that now-deposed Houston manager A.J. Hinch didn’t like using a video monitor to steal signs, and he twice broke the thing in an effort to frustrate the scheme, although for some reason he didn’t order his players not to do it.

The Astros’ players, then, must have felt the cheating system to be very much worth continuing, since they were undaunted by Hinch’s attempts to stop it.

And then, they just … stopped it anyway?

Did the Astros really just decide that a system they had gone to some effort to arrange, which used replay room employees, a dugout adjacent monitor, and audible trash can thumping signals, ceased to work? Or had they come up with an even better system?

Those questions almost immediately became more urgent amid accusations last week that certain Astros were wearing electronic buzzers used to signal which type of pitches were coming. Those accusations have so far proven to be more smoke than fire.

MLB, for its part, said there was no evidence of a buzzer system, notable only because MLB felt compelled to say it. When a major sports league makes a point of responding to the theories of random Twitter users, you know it’s unusually worried about public opinion.

And Major League Baseball is right to be worried. While Manfred and the Astros clipped Luhnow and Hinch and then declared themselves ready to move on, there remains all kinds of questions about what the Astros did, whether they were alone in doing it, and whether the trash can system is the only scheme they developed.

More broadly, MLB has had the fundamental integrity of its games undermined, and a small number of firings will only go a small way to restoring the trust that its consumers need.

The biggest problem remains with all the uncertainty related to what the Astros did and when. Manfred’s report dealt only in generalities. There’s no way to know how often the Astros were successful in stealing signs, how many games were affected by it, and whether certain players benefited more than others.

The MLB’S position is the Astros cheated in 2017, when they won more than 100 games and the World Series, and they stopped cheating in 2018, when they went on to win more than 100 games in each of the next two seasons and advance to one more World Series.

Stack up Houston’s offensive numbers over each of the past three seasons and there is no point it becomes evident the Astros stopped stealing signs.

It’s also possible the cheating system was rarely of practical use. The Astros did win eight home playoff games in 2017 and just three on the road, but also won two of those road games in the World Series, including Game 7 in Los Angeles.

The Astros of 2017 also had better numbers on the road than at home in almost every offensive category in the regular season. Jose Altuve, to pick one example, hit .381 on the road in his MVP season that year and .311 at home, where the team had its cheating system operating. As much as what the Astros did was clearly wrong, it’s less obvious that it was effective.

All of which brings us to this upcoming season. What happens if the Astros don’t hit? This seems unlikely, given the many hitters in their lineup who have produced over a number of seasons. But the Astros almost have to have a world-beating offence again in 2020 just to avoid the accusation their gaudy numbers of recent years weren’t largely the result of fraud. Imagine if Altuve, a three-time batting champ, hits .191 in April. Where’s your buzzer now, pal?

It’s a fascinating subplot. Manfred’s report tried to put a bow on the past while declaring all would be well in the future. But the echoes of what the Astros did will remain.

They were a historically good bunch of hitters. What if they suddenly become less than that? It wouldn’t be the first time that baseball, years later, had to admit that what you saw with your own eyes couldn’t be trusted.