Outbreak not a pandemic yet, WHO says
Matter of time as virus continues global spread
The World Health Organization updated the risk of COVID-19 to “very high,” the highest level of alarm, at a global level, amid growing worries about — and preparations for — a global pandemic.
But despite more than 80,000 cases recorded and nearly 3,000 deaths in at least 50 countries, the World Health Organization still refrains from calling the outbreak a pandemic.
The virus “has pandemic potential,” WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Thursday, but added that this “is not a time for fear. This is a time for taking action to prevent infection and save lives now.”
With experts apparently noncommittal for fear of causing even more alarm, at what point in the crisis might we start using the P-word? How bad would things need to be?
COVID-19 has certainly become an epidemic in many parts of the world, said David Fisman, an infectious disease expert at the University of Toronto. An epidemic is the widespread occurrence of a disease — typically infectious in nature — in a specific geographical location within a short period of time, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In a Friday briefing, Ghebreyesus said the epidemics are linked and can still be traced to known contacts or clusters of cases. “We do not see evidence as yet that the virus is spreading freely in communities. As long as that’s the case, we still have a chance of containing this virus,” he said.
Without a vaccine and proper containment efforts, infections and deaths will continue to rise, Toronto infectious disease specialist Isaac Bogoch told the National Post.
“If we’re not using the ‘pandemic’ word now, we will be using it in the short days ahead.”
Currently, South Korea, Japan, Iran and Italy are the worst-hit countries outside of China, with South Korea reporting upwards of 2,300 infection cases and at least 13 deaths. Iran has had more deaths, at least 34, but fewer infectious cases, at 388, the country reported Friday.
As the virus spreads to more countries and afflicted nations see a rise in infections, more health officials are beginning to throw around the P-word, with the CDC suggesting COVID-19 meets two of its three criteria to be declared a pandemic.
“It’s not so much a question of if this will happen anymore, but rather more a question of exactly when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illness,” said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’S National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.
IT’S NOT SO MUCH A QUESTION OF IF THIS WILL HAPPEN ... BUT RATHER MORE A QUESTION OF EXACTLY WHEN.
The virus has caused illness, including illness that has led to death, and has spread person to person, Messonnier said in a Wednesday briefing. “The world moves closer towards meeting the third criteria: worldwide spread of the new virus.”
Canada’s top public health official, Dr. Theresa Tam, said Thursday that health authorities are already tracking local spread of the virus, after the U.S. confirmed its first community spread of the virus. Health officials confirmed a California woman contracted COVID-19, but had no known ties to anyone who travelled to an epidemic country.
Canada is also taking stock of its medical supplies should a pandemic be declared.
Bogoch said he recognized using the word “pandemic” instils fear in the general public. Fisman echoed that health officials are trying their hardest to avoid causing a panic.
Since Tuesday, infections outside of China have consistently increased while those inside decline; more than 50 countries across the globe have the coronavirus within their borders.
As cases balloon, countries, including France, Germany, Iraq and Japan have ramped up efforts to contain the virus.
For all intents and purposes, the globe has reached the definition of a pandemic, Fisman said.