LIGHTS, CAMERA ... CONFUSION
Coronavirus causes chaos and cancellations in the entertainment biz
NEW YORK March and April are usually rife with premières and live entertainment events.
But as the director John Krasinski stood on a première stage Sunday night to introduce A Quiet Place Part II — his new dystopian movie about characters who must stay silent to survive — there was a feeling of a last hurrah. The entertainment business, it turns out, could soon go as quiet as the characters onscreen.
With the novel coronavirus spreading, companies are scrambling to reschedule and often cancel a wide range of events. Nearly every branch of the industry, from movies to music to theatre, is facing a decision: what to do away with, and when to make that call.
“So many areas are impacted,” said Neil Begley senior vice-president at Moody’s who has studied the subject extensively. “There’s a huge risk here, especially for companies that rely on people gathering en masse and can’t defer to another time on the calendar.”
Theatrical movies are the backbone of the entertainment industry, driving not only US$11.4 billion in ticket sales last year but fuelling viewership on cable and streaming platforms later. Without a strong theatrical business, much of the ecosystem could be disrupted. Yet uncertainty abounds.
The action-adventure reboot Mulan, the superhero movie Black Widow and animated sequel Trolls World Tour are among the films set for release by May 1 that would suffer if theatregoers stay home or governments mandate theatre closures.
“I think the movies coming out over the next one to two months are big question marks,” said Bruce Nash, a box office expert at the site The Numbers. He said a dip in traffic on his site for upcoming releases — fans usually flock to the section to garner info about what’s coming up — was a worrisome sign.
The biggest immediate test will be A Quiet Place Part II, a sequel that opens March 20. The first A Quiet Place was an unexpected smash in 2018, grossing $340 million around the world on a budget under $20 million, and the new instalment is projected to follow suit. But fears over the virus could dampen the box office.
Some films have already sought to get out of harm’s way — Sony recently sent the James Bond picture No Time to Die from April to November. But for many, such moves aren’t an option; the fall is packed, and studios are reluctant to cannibalize one another.
The March-may window is also home to two major film festivals.
The Texas event SXSW, known as South by Southwest, is a showcase for both independent and studio movies. But the city of Austin last week cancelled the event, which was to begin Friday, along with associated music and tech gatherings.
Meanwhile, the Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to begin May 12. Cannes is where Oscar best picture Parasite premièred and began its magic-carpet ride last year. But France has banned gatherings of more than 1,000 people, throwing the festival into question. The biggest venues contain more than 2,000 seats; many thousands more pack the streets outside theatres. Festival officials have said they are continuing to plan this year’s event.
The period is also critical for music. California’s Coachella and Stagecoach festivals have officially been postponed.
The Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival, which was scheduled to take place over two weekends in April, will now hit the Empire Polo Club in Indio Oct. 9-11 and 16-18. Country music festival Stagecoach will be staged at the same location a week later.
“At the direction of the County of Riverside and local health authorities, we must sadly confirm the rescheduling of Coachella and Stagecoach due to COVID -19 concerns,” a statement from promoters at Goldenvoice said. “While this decision comes at a time of universal uncertainty, we take the safety and health of our guests, staff and community very seriously.”
The promoters of the festivals remain hopeful Travis Scott, Frank Ocean and Rage Against the Machine will still be on board to lead the Coachella lineup in October, while the Stagecoach event still lists Thomas Rhett, Carrie Underwood and Eric Church as headliners.
Another industry with high stakes: Broadway. Business has been booming. Some 41 Broadway theatres generated $1.75 billion in revenues last year, with more than 90 per cent of seats filled — a record. Many shows open between now and the end of April ahead of the deadline for the Tony Awards; a first few weeks can doom a production or set it up for years of success.
But the industry is at particular risk for coronavirus. The business relies on many people sitting close together in a congested city. (New York had more than 40 confirmed cases as of Wednesday afternoon.) The average age of Broadwaygoers is their 40s, with many patrons in their 60s and 70s, a higher-risk demographic according to the CDC.
Streamers may play a vital role in the virus fallout. Netflix, Apple TV+, Disney+ and others were founded on the idea that busy lives would drive people to home viewing. Consumers could fill cancelled live-entertainment time with a living-room screen.
Several companies are, at least, well-positioned. Apple has just released Amazing Stories, its long-expected reboot of the Steven Spielberg classic, while Netflix just debuted the Mark Wahlberg action-comedy Spenser Confidential. The Washington Post