NHL SCOUTING IS LARGELY GUESSING GAME THIS SEASON
Mark Seidel doesn’t know what to think of Chris Sedoff.
The draft-eligible defenceman, who plays for the Red Deer Rebels, is currently ranked 62nd on North American Scouting’s latest prospect rankings. But Seidel’s Western Hockey League scout believes he should be much higher.
“My guy out there really likes him, but I’m not really sold on him,” said Seidel, North American Central Scouting ’s chief scout. “I’m saying ‘I just don’t see it.’ And my scout’s like, ‘Well, when is the last time you saw him?’
“It turns out the last time I saw him was November.”
Normally, the argument would have been settled with Seidel booking a trip to Alberta for another viewing. But the spreading coronavirus has deemed that sort of travel non-essential. So Seidel did what scouts across the NHL are now being forced to do: He binge-watched as many of Sedoff’s games as he could on TV.
“I was up last night until four in the morning,” he said. “I watched two or three of his games and I liked him. But those games were from three weeks ago, so who knows?”
There are a lot of Sedoffs out there. There are players who were hurt or playing through injury during the first-half of the season and are now healthy. There are 17 and 18 year old players that would have looked different in March and April than they did back in September or October because their bodies have matured. There are players who would have benefitted from the pressure-grinder of the playoffs or the now-cancelled world championship.
Scouting is often described — inaccurately, some would suggest — as a guessing game. Well, now it’s a crapshoot.
“It’s like a puzzle. You start with the edges and fill it in as the year goes on,” said Craig Button,
TSN’S chief scout. “Every time you go and watch a player, it’s just another data point. You get confirmation so you’re not worried about it anymore. You take all that information and come to a decision. It’s about gaining confidence. You can say the playoffs or the world championship is one piece of the puzzle, but it’s a significant piece.”
How significant?
In 2014, Boston sniper David Pastrnak fell to 25th in the draft mostly because he missed significant time with a bad back. By the time he got to the world championship, he went from being a potential Top 10 pick to being a questionable first-rounder.
With no more games this season, the draft could be littered with Pastrnaks.
For Ottawa, which could own the Nos. 2 and 3 picks (acquired from San Jose) in this year’s draft based on the current standings, it could be the difference between ending up with a difference-maker like Pastrnak or a player who years from now never should have been in the Top 5.
“It makes it more difficult,” Button said. “What happens if you are the Ottawa Senators and you’re picking fourth and fifth? Sam Bennett and Michael Dal Colle went in those spots in 2014. Well, that changes your fortunes. You’re probably going into a draft this year with a lot of uncertainty.”
This year’s version of Pastrnak could be Swedish winger Lucas Raymond, currently ranked seventh, who had a poor showing at the world junior championship because he was coming off an energy-sapping illness. Or maybe it’s projected No. 2 pick Quinton Byfield, who looked overwhelmed at the tournament but was hoping to close the gap between himself and consensus No. 1 pick Alexis Lafreniere with a strong showing for the Sudbury Wolves in this year’s playoffs.
“This hurts him big time,” Seidel said of Byfield, who was ranked No. 1 earlier in the season. “He had a sprained wrist and a terrible prospects game. This was his chance to take his team on his back.
“The biggest knock on him is he can’t do it on a major stage now. We still don’t know. We won’t know.”
For Seidel and other scouts, the only thing to do is watch and re-watch video. Maybe there is something they missed. Maybe there’s something — even the smallest detail — that might indicate whether a player is going to get better or worse as the season progressed.
Maybe.
Or maybe it’s just a guessing game from this point on.
“The suddenness is the crazy part,” Seidel said. “If I knew the season was ending March 10, my schedule would have been so different.
“It’s going to be a wild draft. Teams’ lists are going to be all over the place. Some are going to have guys ranked in the third round and others will have them in their Top 20, just because of the lack of viewings. There’s going to be a lot of mistakes.”
Here are Seidel’s Top 5 prospects heading into the draft:
Alexis Lafreniere, Rimouski (QMJHL): The dynamic winger, who plays for the same junior team as Sidney Crosby, had his coming out party at the world junior tourney, where he scored four goals and 10 points in five games and was named MVP.
Quinton Byfield, Sudbury (OHL): At 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, Byfield is a Ryan Getzlaf clone who’s stock might have dropped because of a poor showing at the junior tourney. But with 32 goals and 82 points in 45 games this season, he could be a franchise centre for years to come.
Jamie Drysdale, Erie (OHL): If Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar proved anything this season, it’s that size means little if a defenceman can skate the puck out of trouble. The 5-foot-11 Drysdale is similar in that respect, with 47 points in 49 games this season.
Tim Stuetzle, Mannheimer (Germany): Stuetzle could go in the Top 5 after carrying his country on his back with five assists at the world junior championship.
Marco Rossi, Ottawa (OHL): With a league-leading 120 points — nine more than the next-best scorer — the 5-foot-8 forward can certainly fill the net, though some scouts wonder whether that offence would continue to translate in the playoffs.