Will economy ever see a return to normal?

Imagine a very large and long river flowing toward the sea. Imagine that all along that river there are hundreds of streams, creeks and smaller rivers that flow into that one large central river.

Along the river banks are hundreds of towns, villages and farms all in some manner deriving benefit from their proximity to the river and waters. If you can imagine that river, then you can begin to imagine the complexity of our economic world.

To do so you must also imagine vast, often global, streams of business and commerce all flowing in some manner to market.

Along those massive streams of business and commerce are thousands of other — and often smaller businesses. Like that multitude of streams and rivulets which feed a larger river, these smaller businesses are the life sustenance for that vast global commerce network.

Small businesses thrive when larger businesses thrive and so it goes up the linked chain to reach, not the sea, but the consumer.

But what happens when the river is diverted or impeded or simply dries up?

All those who derive livelihoods from the river also cease to function.

When the main streams of commerce are affected by such things as a global pandemic the results — up stream — can be catastrophic.

We are in the midst of such a catastrophe at this very moment. Small businesses owed money from other businesses are on the ropes as available capital may be extremely limited.

For example, a small food or beverage supplier which depends upon the restaurant industry will owe money for the inventory ordered, retained and supplied. If restaurants are not selling product then they do not have the funds to pay outstanding accounts to suppliers.

Wholesalers cannot pay their suppliers. And many are faced with the double or even triple whammy of owing rent or mortgage payments, interest on debt acquired to start or maintain a business and any residual costs associated with both retaining or supporting valued staff and personnel.

Realizing that the sources of “water” for the commercial river are drying up even up to the tiniest rivulet, governments have intervened globally to attempt to save, or even salvage, their vital small, medium and even larger businesses.

Some businesses, especially larger ones, may have capital resources which will enable them to weather this commercial drought in the shorter run.

Many smaller business probably do not have available sufficient capital resources or even substantial lines of credit to sustain their operating expenses — their “brick and mortar costs” and providing some security for employees.

Governments have tried to provide support platforms for businesses and laid-off employees. Air Canada proposes to use federal funding to re-hire thousands of employees despite the obvious fact that nobody seems to be flying.

I am by definition and inclination an optimist. Like most folks in our community, province and country, I want to see this dreadful COVID-19 nightmare end.

Despite reassuring words of our prime minister and premier, there is always an underlying hint that we do not have everything entirely under control.

Clear thinking seems confined to our national hero physician and public servant Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer and head of the Public Health Agency of Canada. Based upon my own studies of the 1917-1920 Spanish flu pandemic, I have long been of the view that while COVID numbers may peak and diminish, there is always a probability of one or more return waves.

So, for how long can we as a public sustain our willingness to isolate, shutter businesses and behave in an appropriate manner with hand washing and social distancing?

How long can small and medium businesses survive without sufficient capital resources to effectively sustain their survival?

How long can governments provide generous support packages if people are not flying, restaurants are not serving and families are struggling financially?

If we have to “dig-in” for a long haul, how capable are we as social creatures for retaining semblances of sanity in the absence of a normal and routine lifestyle?

Moreover, let us clearly understand that if government becomes ever more entrenched in sustaining business and, as it were, encroaching upon civil rights with mandatory restraints upon social interaction, will we ever once again return to “normal” and be as free or unencumbered as once we had lived?

We all will have changed. Lloyd Brown-john is a University of Windsor professor emeritus of political science.