Local COVID-19 numbers warrant lockdown: Ahmed

Health unit calling on residents to `start' following proper guidelines

A lockdown looms over Windsor and Essex County after 194 people tested positive for COVID-19 in three days and the region surpassed 4,000 infections.

Although the local health unit still wants to give residents an opportunity to “start” following public health measures intended to stop the spread of the novel coronavirus, medical officer of health Dr. Wajid Ahmed on Monday said the local numbers justify a move into lockdown.

“The idea of these restricted measures is to send a clear message,” Ahmed said.

Ahmed added that residents have historically expressed confusion about what they should and shouldn't be doing under ever-changing guidance from multiple agencies and levels of government.

The WECHU'S guidance for residents has remained consistent for months and includes instructions to maintain a physical distance of two metres or more from anyone outside your household, wear a mask when physical distancing cannot be maintained or where required, wash your hands often with soap and water or an alcohol-based hand sanitizer, and stay home if you are feeling sick.

“The message has been clear. It cannot be more clear than (this),” he said. “We are in the red zone. We are risking a lockdown in the region and we need everyone's support.”

On Monday, the health unit reported 66 new cases of COVID-19, in line with some of the highest single-day case counts Windsor and Essex County has ever seen. The transmission source for the majority of those, 55, was still under investigation by public health unit staff at the time, but case managers had determined 10 were close contacts of confirmed cases and one was a local health-care worker.

Over the weekend, the two-day case count was 128, including 80 on Saturday — the region's highest single-day case increase of the second wave, and the second-highest of all time, behind June 28 when 119 people tested positive following a testing blitz among the county's hard-hit migrant farm worker population. Of the weekend cases, 11 were close contacts of people who previously tested positive and three were attributed to community spread. One was a health-care worker, two were farm workers, and the exposure sources for 111 were still under investigation.

Windsor-essex exceeded 4,000 cases on Monday, with 4,054 local residents testing positive since March.

Just over 1,200 — roughly 30 per cent — of those cases were recorded since Nov. 1, and 501 are active.

Lockdowns “absolutely” make a difference to slow the spread of COVID-19, Ahmed said. On Friday, he used France as an example of a country that's proven the efficacy of tight pandemic restrictions. The country has seen a dramatic decrease in new infections since lockdown measures took effect. Sweden, however, has until recently rejected lockdown measures and reported extremely high case counts for a country of its size.

While Toronto and Peel — areas in Ontario already under lockdown — continue to report high COVID-19 case counts (601 and 512 on Monday, respectively), Ahmed said there would be even more new infections there without the tight restrictions.

Those restrictions combat the virus's exponential spread by limiting the number of people allowed at social gatherings — among other things — which continues to be a concern to the WECHU.

Local data collected during case management and contact tracing in September and October revealed residents were doing well to keep their number of close contacts low, Ahmed said. In November, that changed, with Covid-positive residents reporting “significantly” more close contacts than the provincial average.

“The likelihood of all of these close contacts contracting the virus is pretty high. When you have high numbers of close contacts, they will continue to spread it to others. This is what we're concerned about.”

Even if the region moves from the “red zone” of the province's COVID-19 Response Framework into the “grey zone,” or lockdown, this coming Friday, the tighter restrictions won't make a difference unless residents follow the rules and public health guidelines, Ahmed said.

“This is a difficult time for all of us, and every decision we make has an impact that not only affects us, but also affects our family members and our community in general. The cases continue to increase. Even though this is a season where we are meeting and connecting with our family members ... this is not the time to be complacent.”

Social gatherings pose a risk of more spread, he said. Under the “red zone” restrictions, indoor social gatherings are limited to five people total, though residents are urged to avoid close contact with anyone outside of their own household.

Under lockdown measures, no indoor social gatherings with people from other households are allowed.

“We need your support,” Ahmed said. “Please, follow those public health measures and follow the guidelines.”

Ontario continues to break daily high COVID-19 case records — it did again on Monday with 1,925, surpassing the record set on Sunday by one and beating Saturday's 1,859 infections, which was also a record. Ahmed said those numbers would be much higher without lockdowns in place in areas with the highest transmission rates.

Nineteen locations in Windsor and Essex County have active outbreaks. Seven outbreaks are at workplaces. six at long-term care and retirement homes, and three at schools.

Both Windsor Regional Hospital Ouellette Campus and Hotel-dieu Grace Healthcare's Prince Road facility have active outbreaks.