Local vaccine task force warned goals out of reach

Inoculation of 320,000 residents prompts call for ramped up delivery

Windsor and Essex County face the Herculean job of immunizing tens of thousands of people a day against COVID-19 this spring when more vaccine becomes available.

But a local task force struck to plan the mass vaccination was warned Tuesday that “essentially, if you follow the path we're on today, you have no hope of getting everyone here who wants a vaccine,” a source said Wednesday, adding that the county will be years behind unless able to ramp up efforts.

The warning comes as a record 17 COVID-19 deaths were reported Wednesday, and Windsor Regional Hospital began storing bodies in a refrigerated trailer because its morgue was full.

Retired lieutenant-colonel and strategic military planner Andrew Stewart, who attended the task force's first meeting, reiterated in an email to members later that “Windsor-essex County must vaccinate 3,000 people per working day (Mon.-fri.) between today and the end of September.”

That's a total of 640,000 inoculations to meet Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's goal of vaccinating everyone by the end of September.

Stewart said Tuesday he can't comment without clearance from the Windsor-essex County Health Unit, which is responsible for the mass vaccination. However, the Windsor Star obtained a copy of Stewart's email.

The number of vaccinations is based on the region's population over age 16, which is 320,000, and the fact that current vaccines require two shots.

Stewart warned the task force, led by medical officer of health Dr. Wajid Ahmed and comprised of at least 15 local leaders: “In my opinion, the county must act quickly in order to create a plan that delivers. The longer this takes, the more difficult it becomes to address.” Ahmed declined to comment Wednesday.

But Windsor Regional Hospital CEO David Musyj, who was at the meeting, said there isn't enough vaccine now to immunize 3,000 people a day. When more vaccine is available, Stewart's schedule will have to be “compressed,” with health-care workers inoculating tens of thousands of people per day.

“It might be 30,000 a day. It might be 50,000 a day,” Musyj said.

The number of doses available provincewide is expected to double every month starting this month until it reaches five million in April. The Astrazeneca vaccine, being used in other countries now and expected to be approved in Canada, will also be a game-changer because it can be produced in larger quantities and is easier to transport, store and administer.

“We're going to go from famine to feast,” Musyj said. “We have to be ready to handle that. If people think there's noise now about vaccines in freezers, there best be no vaccine in freezers then.”

“People will be crazy if they have to get on some list and wait months to get a shot,” said a source.

Stewart urged the task force not to be “distracted” by the current limited vaccine supply or people who decline the vaccine, because those are factors that it can't control.

“Plan for an abundance of vaccine. Don't get caught flat-footed,” Musyj agreed.

The plan will require a “military-type response,” said Mayor Drew Dilkens, who was at the meeting.

Family doctors and pharmacies are expected to help.

“Without the help of primary care, I'm not sure how long this might take,” said family physician Dr. Matt Scholl, who was at the meeting and suggested in an email to the task force that a mass call for assistance be issued.

Family doctors could also target patients at high risk of complications from COVID-19 to prioritize them, he wrote. Ontario is already arranging for pharmacies to help vaccinate people.

Multiple vaccination centres will be needed, Musyj said. One centre would be overrun by demand, and centres need to be accessible to everyone, including those who can't drive. Dilkens and Essex County Warden Gary Mcnamara, who chairs the health board, have offered municipal facilities like recreations centres.

Scholl also suggested a campaign to get information to the public on getting vaccinated.

Dilkens said he is concerned about the ability of the health unit, already stretched as it deals with a tsunami of cases, to take on mass vaccination.

“Dr. Ahmed and the health unit cannot do this alone, not successfully,” he said. “It just makes sense to bring in more horsepower. It's about making sure we have all the resources that are needed.

“We have a shared goal,” he said. “We all have to take ownership here. It's going to take many hands to get us across the finish line.”

But there is also concern that the health unit doesn't appear to have a plan yet for mass vaccination.

Dilkens called Premier Doug Ford last week after the health unit received its first shipment of Moderna vaccine for long-term care and retirement homes and expressed concern that there didn't seem to be a plan for administering vaccine.

“I wanted to make sure there is a plan in place for Windsor-essex because we are in a critical spot, as the whole community knows, with respect to long-term care,” he said.

He was also receiving emails from the families of long-term care residents and the public concerned about the slow start of vaccination.

Dilkens said he wants Ford and retired general Rick Hillier, who heads Ontario's vaccination campaign, to understand “what's happening very precisely down here and the need to make sure that the right attention is being applied to the delivery agents for the administration of vaccine such that it's done very, very quickly.”

Vaccination in long-term care homes started Jan. 1. Eight homes were to be completed by Wednesday, and Ahmed has said the rest will be done before the Jan. 21 target.

The province receives a daily list of the number of vaccinations administered in each region.

“I want to make sure Windsor and Essex County are at the top of the list,” Dilkens said. “As more vaccine becomes available, it will go to communities who are demonstrating an ability to administer it quickly.”

The task force first met six days after receiving the Moderna vaccine. And sources say the only concrete outcome of the 30- to 40-minute meeting was scheduling another meeting Jan. 11.

Time is being wasted “trying to tiptoe around the egos and hurt feelings,” a source said.