A STEADYING HAND
Polar vortex poised to plunge the region into deep freeze this month, expert says
Jonathon Taylor and Amber Zahara found a patch of ice on an empty field off Banwell Road in East Windsor for a Monday skate. If you like the cold, you're going to love the weather forecast. See story on
Have you been enjoying the weather in Windsor-essex so far this winter? You should: According to Environment Canada, it's barely been a real winter for us.
But there's a potential for all that to come to a bone-chilling end in the coming weeks.
“A polar vortex — we can see it coming, in a sense,” Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips said Monday. “We see that it has moved off of the North Pole.”
Of course, polar vortexes aren't anything new. There's always one high above the Arctic, spinning cold air like a top.
But when that low-pressure top becomes agitated, it can spill into Canada's south — bringing with it freezing temperatures.
Phillips said Environment Canada's meteorological models are indicating the effects of a vortex could reach the central areas of Canada in the fourth week of January — resulting in significant temperature drops from Manitoba to the Maritimes.
And even the southernmost part of Canada, Windsor-essex, will be feeling the chill.
“If certain things happen — and we think they will — then that cold, dense Arctic air will come rolling down like molasses,” Phillips said.
“It looks like Jan. 20 or 21. That's about the time the Arctic air will engulf all the Great Lakes.”
Under the influence of this polar vortex, Windsor-essex might finally experience its first temperature low of -10 C or colder this season.
Believe it or not, our region has yet to have one occurrence of that so far this winter.
“We've really had a winter, I think, that has been kind,” Phillips said. “It has allowed us to get out and about, go for walks.”
Even with some of the mildest winters in Canada, Windsor-essex typically sees — by this time of year — nine or 10 days of temperatures sinking to -10 C or below, Phillips said.
“You've had none so far,” Phillips noted. “The coldest moment you've had this season was Dec. 27 when it got down to -7.4 C. That's tropical!”
November 2020 was two degrees warmer than Windsor's average November, Phillips said. And our average temperature for December 2020 was actually above the freezing mark.
“It hasn't been record-breaking warmth, but what I find amazing is that there has been sustained warmth. It has been consistently mild,” Phillips said.
“We've been fortunate, so far. But every winter has to have some moments that are winter-like. We are the second-coldest country in the world. Winter is who we are.”
Everybody should already be prepared: The latter weeks of January are typically the coldest time of the year for Windsor-essex.
On Jan. 20 last year, the low temperature was -9 C. That same date in 2019, the low was -18 C.
Phillips likes to refer to this time of year as “the dead of winter.”
“This is a magic moment,” Phillips insisted. “It's that moment when there's more winter behind you than ahead of you. When the temperature reaches its lowest point statistically, that means every day from that point onward becomes marginally warmer, on average.”
And even this coming polar vortex doesn't look like it will have a lot of staying power, according to Environment Canada. The meteorological models are also predicting a return to milder-than-normal temperatures for Great Lakes regions in February.
“So it could be short-lived cold,” Phillips said. “A week of cold, not a month. That's always the hope.”