Great Expectations Or Lost Horizons?

By Kerry Brown

Over April and into May this year I traveled to speak about China across Eastern, Southern and Northern Europe. What were the common observations that struck me across all those very different economies?

Firstly, all are interested and intrigued by the possibilities of greater involvement with China. Serbia, Greece and Latvia have all heard of, and are trying to work out the meaning of, the Belt and Road Initiative. The Greek and Serbian leaders even attended the high-level summit on this issue held in China in mid-May. The concept as it has been unrolled in Beijing might formally involve mostly Central and South Asian partners—but it seems that Eastern Europe thinks of itself as a viable part of the new concept. Even in Denmark, about as far from the Belt and Road routes as it is possible to imagine, there are attempts to try to link with what it might mean and what new opportunities it gives to work with China.

The second observation I could make was that for all the excitement and willingness to engage, the actual examples of sustainable, high-quality Chinese foreign direct investment to point to as models for future projects are few and far between. In Serbia, there has been talk of a train line funded by China from Belgrade to Hungary’s Budapest. But so far, it hasn’t gone ahead. The Belgrade airport has also been presented as a potential object of Chinese investment. In Greece, the highest profile Chinese interest to date is the ownership of the Port of Piraeus, acquired after the 2009 economic crisis. In Denmark, there has been little so far. The same is true for Scotland, Switzerland, and the other countries I went to.

People hope for and have an interest in getting Chinese investment. But so far, there is very little of it around, and most of that is not high profile. In view of China’s proactive stance, and its increasingly global prominence as an economy, what are the reasons for this?

My travels made me realize that one of the main reasons is that there is clearly a mismatch of expectations. On the one hand, European countries, particularly in the east, which group themselves under the Central and Eastern European alliance, have limited experience of Chinese investment. They just have a very large appetite. But their hopes are far too high. They almost regard Chinese involvement as a kind of gift. One commentator in Serbia complained to Chinese attending the event I was at that China should “give” more for greenfield investment. They needed to be more active and increase the volumes coming. The same attitude existed elsewhere.

This is curious. China is a very recent outward inves-