Politics

Russia is bound to the same path as Putin looks destined for a fourth term as president By Han Lu

by the United States and the European Union following the Ukraine crisis in 2014. In 2017 Russia’s economy finally recovered.

Putin has also been resolute in his defense of Russia’s national interests and his unyielding approach has helped to maintain the country’s status as a major global power. During his first two terms (2000-08), a pragmatic foreign policy was characterized by toughness and adaptability, a combination which managed to contain the decline of Russia’s global status since the end of the Cold War, and to some extent restore its previously waning international position. Russia’s growing influence beyond its borders was on full display in its hardline approach toward the Ukraine crisis and on military action in Syria.

It is precisely because Putin has brought stability to Russia that he enjoys such a firm foundation from which to rule. Polls show that 81 percent of the Russian population would agree that Putin has done a good job, and that 80 percent expressed trust in his leadership.

Putin’s performances over his previous three terms will of course prove valuable to his reelection campaign, notwithstanding the rich political resources at his disposal which will also contribute to his pursuit of the presidency. After Putin announced his intention to run, Russian Prime Minister and head of the United Russia Party Dmitry Medvedev immediately revealed his party’s “unconditional” support for Putin’s candidacy. Opposition party A Just Russia and chairmen of Russia’s upper and lower houses of parliament, the Federation Council and the State Duma, also expressed their backing for the president. Meanwhile, to prevent interference from Western countries, Putin signed into law a bill vesting the government with the power to label foreign-funded media outlets in Russia as “foreign agents” in late November 2017.

The sense that none of the other candidates are strong enough to rival Putin is reflected in a statement from the president’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov: “We see many worthy people, but we see no rivals. From my point of view, there is still no real competitor for Putin, not even close.”

Russian opposition forces are weak and dispersed, lacking a powerful leader, pragmatic ideas and practical strategies, especially the pro-Western opposition forces, who pose little challenge to Putin against a backdrop of rising nationalism within Russia.

Prominent opposition figure Alexei Navalny, widely regarded as Putin’s most serious potential challenger, has been barred from contesting the 2018 election because of his conviction in a fraud case. Some skeptics even suggest that the candidacy of former reality TV host Ksenia Sobchak amounts to a Kremlin plan for “managed democracy” whereby a high-profile opposition candidate is picked to give the illusion of political pluralism. According to recent statistics, 70 percent of those polled were in favor of another term with Putin as their president.

Putin-ism

The term Putinism has come to denote Putin’s policy as defined by three principal aspects. Politically, it focuses on sovereign democracy to enact appropriate change to the current political system. Economically, national development forms the core objective of an economic reform program based on sustainable growth. The diplomatic goal of Putinism is to make Russia one of the significant poles in a multipolar world.

Russia’s progress in recent years demonstrates that Putinism is well suited to present national circumstances while also representing the will of the Russian people. If Putin wins reelection this year, it looks likely that he will continue with the strategy that has already won him three presidential terms, seeking to further promote Russia’s development.

Putin will continue to consolidate political stability while instituting the appropriate reforms. Since 2017, protests have taken place in many cities across Russia, in which predominantly young activists have expressed discontent over corruption within the political system. In an effort to stabilize the domestic situation, Putin will likely intensify reforms so as to break the control of Russia’s traditional elites, redistributing political and economic power. He has so far been working to build a younger, more dynamic and more professional political team, demonstrated by the replacement of 16 governors in 2017. Such a mass reshuffle of high-ranking officials serves not only to prepare for Putin’s new term, but also to prepare a new generation of political actors for the post-Putin era.

In terms of the economy, Putin is expected to gradually reform the economic structure.