Looking Ahead

Where does the Shanghai Cooperation Organization stand in its 18th year?

FThe author is a research fellow with the China Institute of International Studies ounded with its focus on security, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has developed rapidly. From five, it is now an eight-member international organization comprising China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Today, it also covers economic and other fields of cooperation and is the global organization with the largest area and population in the world.

This year marks the 18th anniversary of the SCO. How has it fared and what are the challenges ahead?

Model of cooperation

The SCO member countries have established a new type of international relations. Guided by the Shanghai Spirit, a code of conduct characterized by mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, consultation, respect for cultural diversity and pursuit of common development, they have carried out cooperation in various fields, serving as a model of cooperation for countries with different national conditions and political systems.

Security, economic cooperation and people-to-people exchanges are the three pillars of the SCO. Security cooperation is the priority and has become increasingly deeper. Following the new security concept, which stresses common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security, the SCO has established a network to enhance law enforcement and security and achieved results in combating terrorism, separatism and extremism. The members have also successfully fought drug smuggling, transnational crime and crimes in information security. The SCO has made significant contributions to the long-term stability and prosperity of Central Asia and northwest China.

The SCO member countries have also deepened economic collaboration and made substantial progress in trade and investment as well as constructing supporting legal and institutional mechanisms. In 2018, trade between China and the other seven member states reached $211.6 billion, while investment amounted to $85.2 billion. This is a huge leap compared with 2001, when their trade amounted to $12.1 billion.

In 2014, the member states signed the Agreement on Facilitation of International Road Transport to promote regional connectivity and four years later, the ChinaKyrgyzstan- Uzbekistan International Highway opened to traffic. Along with transportation, a regional energy network is also taking shape. The China-central Asia natural gas pipeline and the ChinaKazakhstan and China-russia crude oil pipelines have begun operation.

In recent years, the education, academic, media and environmental communities of the SCO member countries have conducted extensive exchanges. A series of culture, language and tourism promotional programs as well as art festivals also help strengthen mutual understanding and friendship between people in the SCO region.

Challenges and possibilities

Currently, the SCO is at a new development stage full of challenges. The international order has undergone an unprecedented change since the end of the Cold War, and competition between established powers and emerging ones has become increasingly intense. In the U.S. National Security Strategy report released in December 2017, China and Russia were projected as strategic competitors. In addition, the United States has taken a series of measures to contain both.

At the same time, the United States has stepped up efforts to expand its influence in the SCO region. These include the new U.S. strategy for Afghanistan, its Indo-pacific Strategy and Washington’s continued promotion of C5+1 dialogues with the five Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Moreover, surging unilateralism and trade protectionism have unavoidably impacted the SCO.

Internally, India and Pakistan’s entry as new members poses new challenges to the SCO’S operation model. Since it was founded, the SCO has followed the principle of consensus through consultation. India and Pakistan’s entry, given the longstanding disputes between the two neighbors, might make it more difficult for the SCO to reach consensus through consultation, which would impact the efficiency of its cooperation. The two new members are also likely to bring issues unsettled between them into the SCO, which would test the organization’s cohesiveness and integration.

On the other hand, there are opportunities as well. The SCO’S economic power and cooperation potential have improved after the accession of the two new members. The expansion could lead to regional trade and investment facilitation. For example, the China-pakistan Free Trade Agreement, which came into effect in 2007, could serve as a model for the SCO’S free trade facilitation process.

With the admission of India and Pakistan, the SCO covers four important economic corridors of the Chinaproposed Belt and Road Initiative—the China-mongolia-russia, China-central AsiaWestern Asia and China-pakistan economic corridors, and the new Eurasian Continental Bridge, which runs from coastal city Lianyungang in east China to Rotterdam in the Netherlands, carrying the cheapest and fastest Asia-europe rail route. They give Central Asian countries new markets and access to the sea. Also, Central and South Asia can fully utilize their advantages and move toward integration. A trans-regional market and a more comprehensive interconnectivity network are on the cards.

Since the SCO members, especially the relatively underdeveloped economies in the bloc, are all at a critical period of