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责任编辑：陈诗静

（Business School，University of Shanghai for Science and Technology，Shanghai200093，China） Abstract：With the traditional growth engine pulling on the world economy weakened，cross- border e- commerce has become an important growth point of China's foreign trade. "The Belt and Road" strategy had a positive effect greatly push the further development of China's cross- border e- commerce，but the "newpolicies" has led to fell down the cross- border ecommerce transaction volume. In order to study the impact of the introduction of new policies and regulations on cross-border ecommerce，weput forward the influence model of the policy and regulations in which the guidance of "general trade goods" and the "cross- border gray goods"，referring to the classic prey- predator model and the infectious disease dynamics SIR model. Wealsomade a quantitative analysis of the equilibrium point of the model and its stability. Finally，the simulation experiment is carried out for different stable states，and the impact of policies and regulations is analyzed. The result shows thatthe new policies and regulations on cross-border market attractiveness of the policy is to promote the general trade market to the first element of cross-border market excessive，but the lack of support is likely to lead to excessive prosperity of cross-border gray market，only the reasonable control policies and regulations，supervision and appeal to support efforts to achieve "an antidote against the disease，positive role to develop policies and regulations，so as to effectively promote the healthy and orderly development of cross-border electricity trade.

Key words：cross-border