Study on Substitution Elasticity and Dependency of Barley Import in China

GONG Jin，SUN Zhi-lu and LI Xian-de （Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development，China Academy of Agricultural Sciences，Beijing100081，China）

Abstract：In recent years，with the rapid development of China’s beer industry and animal husbandry，the self- supply ability of domestic barley can not meet the growing demand，which leads to the rapid growth of barley import. So we should fully understand this market. Taking the main barley importing countries as an example，the substitution elasticity of barley imports from 1996 to 2017 in China was calculated by using Armington model. The results shows that the imported barley had a certain substitution elasticity for domestic barley in China during the sample period；Australian imported barley had a higher substitution elasticity for domestic barley；while the imported barley from other major importing countries had a smaller substitution elasticity for domestic barley. However，the estimated value of Canada's and France's barley import elasticity for China’s barley was not significant. From the perspective of the dependence of different import sources，the export output elasticity of Australia and France is less than 1，that of Canada is greater than 1，and that of Kazakhstan and other non-major import countries is greater than 1. Therefore，it is suggested to adopt trade protection measures to reduce the excessive import dependence on Australian barley，establish more diversified，stable and reliable sources of barley import by decentralized import strategy，and improve the comprehensive production capacity of China's barley industry.

Key words：barley import；Armington model；substitution elasticity；export output elasticity