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特约责任编辑：古文

（1.University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences，Beijing 102488，China；2. Institute of Economics，CASS，Beijing 100836，China）

Abstract：In 2017，there existed fundamental changes in Sino- US relation；American strategy towards China has been changed from cooperative to competitive. Under the background of new coronavirus outbreak，Sino-US relation is facing more uncertainties；and Sino-US trade friction will have impact on the economy of these two countries，which will in turn lead to chain effects and the reconstruction of global value chain. The authors employ the 2014 world input-output database（WIOD）and the hypothesis extraction method to calculate the economic impact of Sino-US trade friction and global value chain reconstruction on 43 countries and regions in the world，and focus on the maximum impact on the added value and labor employment when the trade between China and the United States is replaced by domestic supply. The results show that：（1）There is regional heterogeneity in economic effects under the setting of the benchmark model，the Asia-pacific region around China and the north American free trade area around the United States are most affected，reflecting the existence of regional production networks（. 2） Compared with the United States，China is more affected，with its added value declining by more than 2.5% ；the remaining countries most affected are Ireland，Luxembourg and the Netherlands；and India and most of countries in the European Union are less influenced（. 3）Further analysis shows that Sino-US trade friction has different impacts on each industry；the most affected industries are China's furniture manufacturing and other manufacturing industries，computer，electronics and optical products， and air transportation（. 4）The authors assume that the rest of the countries are involved in Sino- US trade friction，substitution effect and the global value chain reconstruction exists，the added value and labor employment in some countries will rise，and the highest rate of that is 22.42% . The authors put forward that we should deepen the implementation of BRI，initially develop economic cooperation with neighboring countries or regions，strengthen the impact of regional value chain，and positively cultivate and develop domestic industrial chain.

Key words：Sino-US trade friction；global value chain reconstruction；input-output analysis；hypothesis extraction meth⁃