Risk Assessment and Response of Public Health Emergencies in Infectious Diseases

集中于大中城市，面对类似此次新冠肺炎的传染病等突发公共卫生事件，农村及偏远地区的医疗服务水平明显不足，基层疾病防控机构卫生应急专业能力相对不足，高素质复合型人才短缺，处理重大传染病疫情的专业队伍缺乏，难以有效应对。因此，需要加大对农村及偏远地区医疗方面的财政投入，提高农村及偏远地区应对传染病等突发公共卫生事件的能力，满足其开展公共卫生管理的基本需求。

＊感谢北京物资学院硕士研究生赵辉、赵淑梦对本研究的贡献。

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责任编辑：陈诗静

（1.School of Economics，Beijing Wuzi University，Beijing 101149，China；2.School of Information，Renmin University of China，Beijing 100872，China；3.Institute of Public Management and Human Resources，Development Research Center of the

State Council，Beijing 100010，China）

Abstract：Major public health events will impact the socio-economic operation，especially when it is contagious，the extent and scope of such impact will be more serious. Establishing the model can help us to simulate public health emergencies in infectious diseases；and it will provide us with the effective basis for the evaluation and countermeasures of that. Based on the SEIR model and considering its deficiency，the authors develop a three-step development model，change related parameters from static ones to dynamic ones，simulate the situation of lockdown and reappearance possibility，and carry out the dynamic simulation based on data of new coronavirus outbreak in 2020. It is found that：under the situation of no human intervention，the peak number of infections will appear in one or two months；strengthening isolation and increasing medical investment will significantly reduce the scale and scope of outbreak；and the improved three-step model can play its role in forecasting infection related issues，and it can provide us with effective basis for the evaluation and countermeasures of the infection in the future. Therefore，to effectively cope with the public health emergencies，we should，first，perfect out prevention system from aspects such as restricting isolation，increasing investment in medical resources and continuously focusing on this issues；second，we should isolating related person as early as possible with the happening of diseases and improve the recovery rate to reduce the number of infections，and reduce to fundamentally weaken the negative impact on economy.

Key words：infectious disease model；public health emergency；level of impact；extend of impact；the duration of the outbreak