Research on Dynamic Evolution Trend of NTOCC Enterprise Performance from the Perspective of Open Innovation
（2）：131-150. [27]高良谋，马文甲.开放式创新：内涵、框架与中国情境[J].
管理世界，2014（6）：157-169. [28]王雎.开放式创新下的知识治理——基于认知视角的跨
案例研究[J].南开管理评论，2009（3）：45-53.
[29]COHEN W M，LEVINTHAL D A.Absorptive capacity：a new perspective on learning and innovation[J].Administra⁃ tive science quarterly，1990（1）：128-152. [30]李显君，钟领，王京伦，等.开放式创新与吸收能力对创新绩效影响——基于我国汽车企业的实证[J].
科研管理，2018（1）：45-52.
[31]SAPIENZA H J，PARHANKANGAS A，AUTIO E.Knowl⁃ edge relatedness and post- spin- off growth[J].Journal of business venturing，2004（6）：809-829. [32]孙彪，刘玉，刘益.不确定性、知识整合机制与创新绩效的关系研究——基于技术创新联盟的特定情境[J].科学学与科学技术管理，2012（1）：51-59. [33]杨菲，安立仁，史贝贝，等.知识积累与双元创新能力动态
反馈关系研究[J].管理学报，2017（11）：1 639-1 649. [34]简兆权，吴隆增，黄静.吸收能力、知识整合对组织创新和
组织绩效的影响研究[J].科研管理，2008（1）：80-86，96. [35]GEORGE G，KOTHA R，ZHENG Y.Entry into insular do⁃ mains：a longitudinal study of knowledge structuration and innovation in biotechnology firms[J].Journal of management studies，2008（8）：1 448-1 474. [36]张军，许庆瑞.知识积累、创新能力与企业成长关系研究
[J].科学学与科学技术管理，2014（8）：86-95.
[37]HAN Y Q，Li D Y.Effects of intellectual capital on innova⁃ tive performance——the role of knowledge-based dynamic capability[J].Management decision，2015（1）：40-56. [38]曲创，刘洪波.交叉网络外部性、平台异质性与对角兼并
的圈定效应[J].产业经济研究，2018（2）：15-28. [39]FAEMS D，DE VISSER M，ANDRIES P，et al.Technology alliance portfolios and financial performance：value-enhanc⁃ ing and cost- increasing effects of open innovation[J].Journal of product innovation management，2010（6）：785-796. [40]运满满与货车帮矛盾升级，对3000
万货车司机有没有影响？[EB/OL]（. 2017-08-16）[2020-05-20].https：//mini. eastday.com/a/170816095616013.html?qid=02263.
责任编辑：方程
（School of Economics and Management，Northeast Normal University，Changchun 130117，Jilin，China） Abstract：The NTOCC business model is an innovative business model born under the concept of collaborative sharing of intelligent logistics. The research on NVOCC enterprises is of great significance to the rapid and healthy development of such enterprises and the formulation of intelligent logistics industrial policies. Based on the analysis of the action mechanism of twosided market and innovation elements under the open innovation，a system dynamics model for the performance evolution of NTOCC is constructed. The system simulation analysis and sensitivity analysis are carried out by using Vensim PLE software. The results show that：（1）The number of users determines the platform value，and cross- network externality is an important driving force for users to accumulate（. 2）From the perspective of open innovation，firstly，the performance of NTOCC enterprises can be significantly improved after adopting the open innovation model，but the benefits and risks of the open innovation mode coexist，and the risks outweigh the benefits in the early stage；secondly，compared with the depth of opening，the breadth of opening has a greater impact on the performance of enterprises，and this impact is realized by acting on the value-added service revenue；finally，excessive openness will have a negative impact on corporate performance（. 3）Market competition can promote enterprise performance，and "subsidy war" may lead to the formation of winner- take- all situation. Because of this，first， NTOCC enterprises should adopt the open innovation pattern，avoid the severe homogeneous competition，expand the width of openness，and provide platform users with various value-added service；second，large NTOCC enterprises with abundant capital should adopt appropriate strategy to gain first mover advantages with the help of higher subsidy；third，small and medium NTOCC enterprises should start from“winner- take- all”，relieve the pressure of subsidy，and provide users with differentiated value- added service and transportation resources；and fourth，the government should avoid the result of monopoly brought by “winner-take-all”，encourage or help some SMEs to enter the market，and create the sound market competition environment.
Key words：NTOCC；open innovation；two-sided market；system dynamics；enterprise performance